China’s market targets are ‘just psychological’, says former regulator #NewsMarket

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A former senior Chinese financial regulator has said top Beijing leaders set “psychological” targets for the nation’s stock markets and currency exchange rate that are not based on fundamentals.

The comments to a seminar by Xiao Gang, former head of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, offer a rare insight into the often murky world of elite policymaking at a time when the Communist party under President Xi Jinping has been tightening control of the financial system.

In videoed remarks made at the seminar in mid-November at the PBC School of Finance at Tsinghua University and published on the social media site X last week, Xiao said that while top leaders did not officially set market levels, they became nervous when certain thresholds were passed.

Xiao, who was removed as CSRC chief in 2016 after a severe market downturn, said senior officials kept “goals” in their minds for the markets. These were not “personal” targets but depended “rather on what the leadership considers as the standard”.

He said China’s leaders became uncomfortable if the stock market benchmark, the Shanghai Composite index, fell below 3,000 points.

“The 3,000-point goal is just a psychological goal; it has no scientific proof and does not come with any [formal] government order,” Xiao said, laughing. “But there is a consensus [among the top leadership].”

“This has been a [perception] ingrained in people’s minds for many years. But how much scientific basis is there for this? None,” he said.

The frank comments from Xiao, who worked in China’s central bank before playing an important role in banking sector reform as head of state-owned Bank of China, were highly unusual even for a retired senior official. In China, discussion or criticism of the internal workings of the leadership process can lead to severe punishment.

Xiao said China’s leaders had once considered any weakening of the renminbi through Rmb7 to the dollar to be a very worrying prospect, but when this did finally occur several years ago, “nothing significant happened” to the markets.

“It wasn’t us who were worried; it was the senior leadership,” he said.

The onshore renminbi was trading onshore at Rmb7.26 to the dollar on Wednesday.

Beijing sees the exchange rate as critically important to its mission to develop China as a reliable trading partner, with numerous officials calling for a stable exchange rate against the dollar.

Chinese authorities also see the country’s stock markets as both venues for corporate fundraising and important tools for maintaining social stability. Investors have long suspected the top leadership maintains unofficial targets for the markets and tries to steer trading when prices breach these levels.

Millions of Chinese households participate in the stock market as one of a limited range of investment opportunities available to the middle class in the country, particularly after a recent real estate sector crash.

State-affiliated entities, known as the “national team”, occasionally launch buying sprees to prop up stocks. In September, the government announced one of its biggest monetary policy interventions yet to encourage more institutional buying of equities.

Xiao was asked at the seminar about the government’s use of the “national team” to support markets.

“The ‘national team’ only intervenes at rock-bottom levels, such as 2,600, 2,700, or 2,800 points,” he said, referring to the Shanghai Composite Index. The index was at 3,276.58 after Wednesday’s morning trading session, up 0.5 per cent on the day.

Xiao’s remarks drew a stinging rebuke from Dong Shaopeng, an advisory committee member of the Securities Association of China, a body under the direct supervision of the CSRC.

As a former regulatory official and a veteran of the financial sector, Xiao’s remarks could cause turmoil in public opinion, Dong wrote in an article posted on the social media platform Weixin.

“Such information, when taken out of context, spreads false information,” Dong said.

Xiao could not be reached for comment. The CSRC and the PBC School of Finance did not respond to a request for comment. The People’s Bank of China declined to comment.

Data visualisation by Haohsiang Ko