A January Update for the 2025 NBA Draft #NewsETFs

The new era of the NBA has seemingly emphasized both outside shooting and positional size. Most competitive teams are now filled with taller wings or forwards who can space the floor and guard multiple positions defensively. The NBA’s movement towards taller players with long wingspans has also led to the decline of undersized guards sticking in the NBA.

While we’ve dove into three queries that emphasize different levels of production based on college year, as shown through the Productive Young Athlete (PYA) query, Productive Sophomore Query (PSQ), and Productive Junior Query (PJQ), the Efficient Tall Freshman (ETF) Query dives into the combination of size and potential as a shooter in predicting NBA outcomes. The title itself is also a play on exchange-traded funds, which are also known as ETFs in the financial world and are one of the most common ways for people to invest their money. Similarly, perhaps the ETF query can be a reason for a team to invest in a prospect who meets the necessary criteria.

Read More: 2024 NBA Draft: The Efficient Tall Freshman (ETF) Query

Before we dive into the statistical analysis, it’s important to define what “stick” means in my study. In this case, I considered a prospect to “stick” if they played at least five seasons in the NBA. Prospects who qualified during the 2020-21 NCAA season met the criteria of “sticking” if they are still in the league, due to the impossibility of them reaching five NBA seasons.

There were 67 freshmen throughout the 12 college basketball seasons from 2010-2021 who played at least 40% of their team’s minutes, were at least 6-foot-6, had a free throw percentage of at least 75%, had at least 50 free throw attempts, had a Box Plus-Minus of at least +3, and met the minimum athletic threshold of four total dunks. 64.18% (43/67) of those freshmen played five-plus years in the NBA or are currently in the NBA.

Why are each of these criteria important?

A freshman is the first year of a player at a college or university, indicating a young age of around 18 years old. Minutes Percentage is the share of the team’s total minutes that a prospect plays in. These two criteria alone help narrow prospects down into college basketball players who are young but are already trusted by their college coach and talented enough to play significant (defined here as ≥40% of the team’s total) minutes.

The next indicator for the prospect is having a free throw percentage of at least 75%, which indicates potential as a shooter at the next level. In fact, a player’s college free throw percentage is actually a better indicator of potential as an NBA shooter than their college three-point percentage. Additionally, all prospects included in the study shot at least 50 free throw attempts in their freshman season, reducing the chance for error within the free throw shooting indicator.

Since size and, more specifically, height is becoming more important to sticking in the NBA, we looked at players who are at least 6-foot-6. This narrows it down to freshmen being trusted to play a significant amount of their team’s minutes, have potential as a shooter in the NBA, and have significant size at 6-foot-6. Finally, one of the last two indicators is a Box Plus-Minus of at least +3, used to ensure that the prospects are impacting the college game to a baseline level over a replacement player. The last indicator is a minimum dunk threshold of four, used to incorporate a baseline athleticism metric.

Therefore, players who meet the Efficient Tall Freshman (ETF) query are freshmen who are trusted to play at least 40% of their team’s minutes, are impacting the game at a minimum level (+3 Box Plus-Minus), have positional size of at least 6-foot-6, have positive shooting indicators (converting at least 75% from the line on at least 50 attempts that season), and also meet the four-dunk athletic threshold.

Below are the players who met the Efficient Tall Shooter query from 2010-2021 and ended up “sticking” in the NBA:

2010: Alec Burks and Khris Middleton

2011: Tobias Harris, Harrison Barnes, Allen Crabbe, and Joe Harris

2012: Cody Zeller and Damion Lee

2013: Justin Anderson and Nik Stauskas

2014: Andrew Wiggins

2015: Karl-Anthony Towns, Myles Turner, Devin Booker, and Pascal Siakam

2016: Mikal Bridges

2017: Jayson Tatum, Lauri Markkanen, Jonathan Isaac, and Amir Coffey

2018: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaren Jackson Jr., De’Andre Hunter, Jalen McDaniels, Gary Trent Jr., Naji Marshall, Kevin Knox, and Oshae Brissett

2019: Cam Reddish, Nassir Little, and Charles Bassey

2020: Franz Wagner, Patrick Williams, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Zeke Nnaji, Isaiah Stewart, Josh Green, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, Julian Champagnie, and Justin Champagnie

2021: Cade Cunningham, Keegan Murray, Benndict Mathurin, and Moses Moody

*Jontay Porter (2018), Terrance Shannon Jr (2020), Zach Freemantle (2020), and Dillon Jones (2021) all met the criteria but were not included in the study due to uncertainty regarding their NBA futures (such as being drafted in 2024 or an off-court issue cutting their career short)

2022

Four players met the criteria in 2022: Jabari Smith, AJ Griffin, Tyson Degenhart, and Tucker DeVries.

Jabari Smith ended up being the third overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft and has been an important part of the Rockets’ resurgence. The 6-foot-11 forward has averaged 31.4 minutes per game in his first three seasons and has appeared in 188 games for the Rockets. He’s averaging 11.9 points, 6.5 rebounds, one block, and 0.4 steals while shooting 35.4% from three on 4.8 attempts per game this season.

AJ Griffin was drafted with the 16th pick by the Atlanta Hawks in the 2022 NBA Draft. Coming into the NBA, Griffin had a significant injury history that appears to have unfortunately impacted his first two years in the NBA thus far as well. After appearing in 72 games for the Hawks in his rookie season while averaging 19.5 minutes per game and shooting 39% from deep on 3.6 attempts per game, injuries limited Griffin to only 20 games in his sophomore season with the Hawks. Prior to this season, AJ Griffin announced his retirement from basketball to pursue becoming a full-time minister — according to his YouTube.

Tyson Degenhart is currently an impact player for Boise State. The 6-foot-7, 232-pound wing is averaging 18 points, six rebounds, 1.5 assists, and 0.5 steals per game while shooting 71% at the rim, 35.5% on non-rim twos, 28.7% from three, and 81% from the free throw line. Degenhart could be someone to keep an eye on for the 2025 NBA Draft.

Tucker DeVries is a senior at West Virginia who spent his first three seasons with the Drake Bulldogs.
He and his father both took their talents to West Virginia, as his father Darian DeVries is a first-year Head Coach at West Virginia after having the same role at Drake. The 6-foot-7 guard is averaging 14.9 points, 2.8 assists, 4.9 rebounds, and 1.8 steals per game while shooting 47.3% from beyond the arc on nearly seven attempts per game. He’s a legitimate prospect in the 2025 NBA Draft.

2023

Nine players met the criteria in 2023: Brandon Miller, Brice Sensabaugh, Taylor Hendricks, Gradey Dick, Kyle Filipowski, Julian Phillips, Jett Howard, Mark Mitchell, and Andrew Rohde.

Miller, Sansabaugh, Hendricks, and Dick, and Howard were all first-round picks in the 2023 NBA Draft while Phillips was selected in the second round.

Kyle Filipowski has appeared in 32 games this season for the Jazz, averaging 5.9 points, 4.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 0.6 steals in 18.2 minutes per game.

Read More: Kyle Filipowski Offensive Scouting Report

Read More: Kyle Filipowski Defensive Scouting Report

Both Mark Mitchell and Andrew Rohde have been impactful at the college level. Mitchell transferred to Missouri after two seasons at Duke while Rohde is in his second season at Virginia after spending his freshman year at St. Thomas.

2024

Four players qualified for the Efficient Tall Freshman query in 2024: Stephon Castle, Johnny Furphy, Kwame Evans Jr, and Milan Momcilovic.

Castle was a freshman on the UConn championship team last season and averaged 11 points, three assists, 0.8 steals, 0.5 blocks, and 4.7 rebounds while converting 63% of his attempts at the rim (149 attempts), 34.8% of his non-rim twos (66 attempts), but only 26% of his catch-and-shoot threes (57 attempts). He also recorded a 7.8 offensive rebounding percentage, 18.4 assist percentage, and 3.9 stock percentage.

Lastly, Castle was in the 77th percentile in Pick-and-Roll Ball-Handler Plus Passes possessions. Illustrated through this query requiring a 75 free throw percentage or higher, Castle recorded a 75.5 FT% on 110 attempts last season at UConn and may have more shooting potential than he showed at UConn and in his first year with the Spurs so far. The rookie is averaging 11.6 points, 3.6 assists, 2.5 rebounds, and 1.1 stocks in 25.1 minutes per game but is shooting only 26% from three (154 attempts). Castle has started 24 games and appeared in 41 total games and has been impressive on the defensive end of the floor.

Furphy was a 6-foot-9 freshman for the Kansas Jayhawks last season that had an up-and-down but overall efficient year. He averaged nine points, five rebounds, 1.2 stocks, and one assist per game while shooting 76.5% from the free throw line and 35.2% from three on 3.8 attempts per game. Now with the Pacers, he’s played in 222 minutes for Indiana so far this season.

Kwame Evans Jr is a 6-foot-9 sophomore at Oregon, averaging 6.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, 0.7 assists, 0.3 steals, and 0.5 blocks per game. He’s shown some versatility defensively as well as potential as a long-term shooter, indicated by his 79.5 FT% and unguarded catch-and-shoot numbers last season. However, this season, Evans Jr is only converting 73.6% of his free throws and 24.1% of his threes.

Milan Momcilovic is a 6-foot-8 wing/forward for Iowa State who’s averaging 10.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, 0.8 assists, and 0.6 stocks per game while shooting 44.3% from three (10.6 three-point attempts per 100 possessions) and 46.9% on non-rim twos (32 attempts). It should be noted that he only has 16 attempts at the rim so far this season.

The six players below have had their minimum requirements for free throws reduced to 30 total attempts and two dunks instead of 50 total free throw attempts and four dunks, respectively, due to the amount of season still left to be played to meet those minimum-style requirements. The list below is in order of highest Box Plus-Minus (BPM) to lowest BPM.

Cooper Flagg, Duke (14.1 Box Plus-Minus)

The freshman phenom, who’s also on track to meet my Productive Young Athlete query (76% stick rate), is averaging 19.2 points, 8.1 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.2 blocks per game while shooting 64.2% at the rim (95 attempts), 41.8% on on-rim twos (79 attempts), 34.8% from three (66 attempts), and 80.9% from the free throw line (110 attempts). Additionally, Flagg is recording a 6.5 offensive rebound percentage, 21.8 defensive rebound percentage, 26 assist percentage, and 4.4 block percentage so far this season. Flagg is the consensus projected No. 1 overall pick in June and deservedly so.

For those who haven’t seen much of his film from Montverde: 2025 NBA Draft: Cooper Flagg Preseason Scouting Report

Khaman Maluach, Duke (9.6 Box Plus-Minus)

Another prospect on track to meet both my Productive Young Athlete (PYA) query and the Efficient Tall Freshman (ETF) Query, Maluach is a 7-foot-2 freshman averaging 8.9 points, 6.3 rebounds, 0.3 assists, and 1.3 stocks per game while shooting 85.9% at the rim (64 attempts) and 77.3% from the free throw line (44 attempts). The projected first round pick is also recording a 15.4 offensive rebound percentage and a block percentage of six.

Derik Queen, Maryland (7.5 Box Plus-Minus)

Queen is a 6-foot-10 freshman big for the Terps who’s averaging 15.6 points, eight rebounds, two assists, 1.2 steals, and 0.9 blocks per game while shooting 74.2% at the rim (128 attempts), 34.4% on non-rim twos (61 attempts), only 9.5% from beyond the arc (21 attempts), but a solid 76.3% from the free throw line (97 attempts). Additionally, the former Montverde player is recording a 9.3 offensive rebound percentage, 13.1 assist percentage, and 3.6 block percentage. He’s a projected first-round pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.

Thomas Sorber, Georgetown (7.3 Box Plus-Minus)

Sorber is a 6-foot-10 freshman averaging 14.2 points, 8.7 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.3 steals, and 2.3 blocks per game while shooting 67.3% at the rim (110 attempts), 34.1% on non-rim twos (44 attempts), only 14.8% from beyond the arc (27 attempts), but a solid 75.9% from the free throw line (87 attempts). Additionally, Sorber is recording a 10.2 offensive rebound percentage, 16.6 assist percentage, and 8.6 block percentage. The Georgetown freshman is a projected first-round pick as well.

Tre Johnson, Texas (6.0 Box Plus-Minus)

Johnson is a 6-foot-6 guard who’s averaging 18.2 points, two assists, 2.8 rebounds, 0.9 steals, and 0.4 blocks per game while shooting 66.7% at the rim (36 attempts), 44.9% on non-rim twos (107 attempts), 38% from three (108 attempts), and 84% from the free throw line (50 attempts). He’s been unassisted on 59.3% of his made field goal attempts this season while recording a 12.6 assist percentage. Johnson is also a projected first round pick.

Donnie Freeman, Syracuse (3.9 Box Plus-Minus)

Freeman is a 6-foot-9 forward averaging 13.4 points, 7.9 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 0.8 stocks per game while shooting 74.5% at the rim (51 attempts), 37.5% on non-rim twos (48 attempts), 33.3% from three (36 attempts), and 79.6% from the free throw line (49 attempts). Freeman was at IMG Academy last season alongside Khani Rooths (Louisville), Chase McCarty (Houston), and Cole Certa (Notre Dame).

Conclusion: Why is this Useful?

The Efficient Tall Freshman query is best used when attempting to identify talent or when weighing the potential risks of drafting a player.

For example, if a college basketball player meets the seven criteria during the season, then due diligence on the player is likely necessary. Similarly, if you’re considering a player with a second-round pick who’s met the Efficient Tall Freshman query, it may be a sense of comfort that 64% of players who hit the same criteria play five-plus seasons in the NBA.

This is especially important to take into account, as only  of second-round picks from the 1990-2017 NBA Drafts ended up playing at least five NBA seasons with a career of 10-24 minutes per game or over 4000 career NBA minutes. Regardless, the ETF query should be used in conjunction with film, other key statistics, intangibles and medical information when evaluating a prospect.

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