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BTC Faces Pressure Amid US Tariff Threats
Beyond the Ripple case, broader crypto markets face additional headwinds, particularly from US tariff policies impacting BTC.
On February 9, The Kobeissi Letter, a financial news outlet, reported that US President Trump plans a 25% tariff on aluminum and steel imports into the US. Additionally, Trump reportedly warned of reciprocal tariffs on certain nations, potentially effective on Tuesday or Wednesday. Reciprocal tariffs may depend on whether China imposes tariffs on selected US goods on February 10.
Wider sweeping US tariffs could elevate import prices, fueling inflationary pressures and potentially delaying Fed rate cuts. A more hawkish Fed rate path could weigh on risk assets, including BTC.
Fed Policy and BTC Volatility
On February 7, BTC slid from a session high of $100,216 to a low of $95,688 after hotter-than-expected inflation data. The Michigan Inflation Expectations Index jumped to 4.3% in February, up from 3.3% in January.
Friday’s numbers set the stage for the looming US CPI Report and Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on Capitol Hill on February 11. A pickup in inflationary pressures and a hawkish Fed Chair Powell could further pressure BTC and the broader crypto market.
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Developments: A Game Change for BTC?
While tariffs and Fed policy remain key drivers, progress toward a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) will likely be crucial for BTC’s long-term supply-demand balance.
Hopes for a US SBR improved last week after the House for the US State of Utah passed an SBR Bill. Other US states eying an SBR include Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Montana, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyoming.
An increasing number of state-level SBR initiatives could boost the chances of a national SBR, driving sustained BTC demand.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
On Sunday, February 9, BTC slipped by 0.13% after edging 0.01% lower on Saturday, closing at $96,527.
Key Factors to Watch
- US Tariff Developments
- SBR Legislative Updates
- Fed Rate Expectations
- US BTC-Spot ETF Market Flow Trends.
Possible Scenarios:
- Bearish Scenario: Wider sweeping US tariffs, a hawkish Fed, and stalled SBR discussions could pull BTC toward $90,000.
- Bullish Scenario: A shift in US tariff plans, dovish Fed, and progress on a US SBR may drive BTC toward its all-time high of $109,312.
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