Financial Insights That Matter
Click here to find out why analysts believe XRP could skyrocket—or crash—based on the SEC’s decision.
BTC-Spot ETF Market Outflows Weigh on Bitcoin
Beyond speculation about the SEC vs. Ripple case, US BTC-spot ETF market flow impacted bitcoin (BTC) demand. According to Farside Investors, flow data for February 13 included:
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) reported net outflows of $94.5 million.
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) had net outflows of $52.7 million.
Excluding iShares Bitcoin Trust, the US BTC-spot ETF market had $183 million of total net outflows. Significantly, the spot ETF market faces a four-day outflow streak, keeping BTC below the $100k threshold.
Fading bets on an H1 2025 Fed rate cut weighed on BTC sentiment. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a June 25-basis point Fed rate cut has fallen from 45.7% on February 6 to 36.3% on February 13, following recent US inflation data.
Nevertheless, hopes for a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) have cushioned BTC’s downside. Several US states are progressing legislation to recognize BTC as a strategic reserve asset, potentially bolstering the case for a national SBR.
The Bitcoin Act: A Game-Changer?
The supply-demand balance could tilt firmly in BTC’s favor if Congress approves the Bitcoin Act. Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced the Bitcoin Act, proposing the US government purchases one million BTC over five years, with a mandatory holding period of 20 years.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
On Thursday, February 13, fell 1.24%, partially reversing Wednesday’s 2.17% gain to close at $96,664.
Beyond the progress toward a US SBR, traders should monitor:
- US Tariff policies and trade tensions.
- Upcoming US retail sales data.
- US BTC-Spot ETF Market Flow Trends.
Possible Scenarios:
- Bearish: Rising US tariffs, upbeat US retail sales, and a hawkish Fed could drag BTC toward $90,000.
- Bullish: Easing tariff jitters, weaker retail sales, and renewed bets on an H1 2025 Fed rate cut could drive BTC toward its all-time high of $109,312.
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