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Bitcoin Awaits Fresh Catalysts Amid Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Uncertainty
Beyond the Ripple case, bitcoin (BTC) remained in a sideways trend. The slow progress toward establishing a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) weighed on demand.
While multiple US states are exploring BTC as a strategic reserve asset, the Bitcoin Act has seen little progress in Congress. Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced the bill in late 2024, proposing the US government purchase one million BTC over five years, with a 20-year mandatory holding period.
Since introducing the bill, President Trump signed an executive order (EO), creating the Presidential Working Group on Digital Asset Markets. One of its key tasks is evaluating the creation of a national digital asset stockpile. However, the EO did not name BTC directly, fueling speculation about Trump’s broader crypto policy.
Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan criticized Senator Lummis’ BTC-centric approach on February 16, stating:
“Yes I warned about Senator Lummis a long time ago. She will push for Bitcoin to have a special position and a permanent advantage over Altcoins. I don’t think President Trump and Elon Musk are for Bitcoin exceptionalism as this would ultimately harm innovation which Trump wants the USA to lead.”
A national SBR could tilt the supply-demand balance. John E. Deaton recently commented:
“If the US Government (USG) passes Senator Lummis’ Bill and begins buying BTC, it will no doubt cause other nations to follow suit, just like with gold. It could literally create Nation State FOMO, and if that occurs, $1M per BTC happens a lot faster than people think.”
Bitcoin Price Outlook
On February 17, BTC slipped by 0.48% after falling 1.51% on Sunday to close at $95,768. BTC fell short of the $100k level for the tenth consecutive session, reflecting uncertainty about a national SBR.
Looking ahead, key BTC catalysts include:
- US Economic Data: Jobless claims report (February 20) and Services PMI (February 21).
- FOMC Commentary: insights into inflation, the labor market, and the Fed’s rate path.
- US Tariff policies: Trade tensions and economic impact.
- Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) Development: Updates on the US government’s stance on BTC reserves.
Possible BTC Price Scenarios:
- Bearish: Increased US tariffs, strong economic data, a hawkish Fed, and resistance to a U.S. SBR could drag BTC toward $90,000.
- Bullish: Weaker US economic data, a dovish Fed, easing trade tensions, and progress on an SBR could push BTC toward its all-time high of $109,312.
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