Financial Insights That Matter
Read expert analysis on what could drive XRP to new highs here.
Bitcoin Hovers Below $90k Amid Rising US Recession Risk
On March 6, US labor market data took center stage amid growing recession concerns. Initial jobless claims dropped from 242k (week ending February 22) to 221k (week ending March 1). However, the lower claims reading failed to influence sentiment toward the Fed rate path. Rising US recession risks and President Trump’s shifting tariff policies fueled uncertainty, impacting risk assets.
According to Kalshi, the odds of a 2025 US recession stood at 39% on March 6, up from as low as 17% in January. Meanwhile, the chances of a June Fed rate cut rose from 79.7% on March 5 to 87.3% on March 6. While rate cuts can boost demand for risk assets, rate cuts supporting an ailing economy may dampen risk sentiment.
Beyond the crypto market, US equity markets also struggled. The Nasdaq Composite Index plunged 2.61%, while the Dow and the S&P 500 fell 0.99% and 1.78%, respectively.
White House Crypto Summit in Focus
On Friday, March 7, the White House Crypto Summit will take place. Hopes for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) have faded, with the administration now proposing a broader Crypto Strategic Reserve Asset comprised of BTC, ETH, ADA, SOL, and XRP. It remains unclear whether Trump’s shift in strategy, similar to the flip-flopping on tariffs, will affect the Bitcoin Act’s progress in Congress.
The summit could outline the crypto allocations within the reserve and whether it will replace the original SBR plan.
In late 2024, Senator Cynthia Lummis introduced the Bitcoin Act, proposing that the US government acquire one million BTC over five years, with a 20-year mandatory holding period.
US Administration AI and Crypto Czar David Sacks criticized previous US government BTC sales, stating:
“Over the past decade, the federal government sold approximately 195,000 bitcoin for proceeds of $366 million. If the government had held the bitcoin, it would be worth over $17 billion today. That’s how much it has cost American taxpayers not to have a long-term strategy.”
The US government currently has a 198,109 BTC stockpile, equivalent to $17.91 billion.
Bitcoin Price Scenarios: Key Levels to Watch
BTC fell by 0.75% on March 6, partially reversing Wednesday’s 3.82% gain to close at $89,958. The US Jobs Report, tariff developments, and the Crypto Summit will influence BTC demand on March 7.
- US Jobs Report: Economists forecast average hourly earnings to rise 4.1% year-on-year in February, mirroring January’s rise, while expecting a steady 4.1% unemployment rate.
- Tariff Developments: A de-escalation in US tariff tensions could boost demand for risk assets. A softer tariff stance may limit the impact on import prices and inflation, potentially supporting a more dovish Fed rate path.
- Crypto Summit: Details on the US Crypto Strategic Reserve Asset will be crucial for near-term BTC price trends.
Potential price scenarios:
- Bearish: Rising trade tensions, strong US data, resistance to a Crypto Strategic Reserve Asset, and BTC-spot ETF outflows could drag BTC toward $80K.
- Bullish: Easing trade tensions, weaker US data, lawmaker support for a US Crypto Strategic Reserve (primarily BTC), and BTC-spot ETF inflows could drive BTC toward its record high of $109,312.
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