Bajaj Finance & CAMS- Undervalued now? [and 3 other stocks] | Akshat Shrivastava #Finance

Hi, everyone. Welcome to today’s CashNews.co. On today’s CashNews.co, I’m going to discuss some of the critical changes that I’m making on my Portfolio. I believe that there is a lot of risk in the

style="font-weight: bold; color: #1a73e8; text-decoration: none;">Markets right now, so I’m repositioning my Portfolio. For example, I have sold my small cap 250 Index fund, the entirety. It was a lot of money. I had put it in front of you last year, so I’ve exited

that completely. I’m adding a lot more US stocks, and there are certain types of mid-cap to large-cap companies that I’m adding into my Portfolio. I’m going to talk about to give you a flavor as to how you can reposition and rebalance your

Portfolio. For people who are new to my channel, my name is Akshat Shrivastava. I am a full-time investor now. I travel across the globe, gain insights, work with a lot of HNI’s. I’m running my hedge fund. I get to speak with a lot of rich people who are running their

businesses, investing money on full-time basis. So whatever insights that I get from them and through my own experiences of building and managing a fairly big Portfolio, I try to share it with all of you. So on that note, let us kickstart our CashNews.co and let me take you

point-wise as to why am I making certain type of changes on my Portfolio. So the first key major change that I have made on my Portfolio is to cut my entire small cap position. So I’m going to show you. This is one of my mutual funds, and this is something

that I had built publicly last year. You can see that I’m sitting on roughly 40% gain here. XiRR is only 26 now because I have cut my small cap funds. Now, why have I cut my small cap index funds? The reason is very simple, and I will tell you from here. Since the last one year, since I have

purchased, the small cap gave a run-up of roughly 115%. Out of this, I was able to capture roughly 90%. If a snapshot over, I will attach it here also, that how I was able to capture 90% of this. And since then, small caps have corrected a little bit, but not a big deal. For this, you need to take

a slightly long term view. Let me share that also. Let’s look at from pre-COVID levels, and the total run-up is 230, 240. Now, typically speaking, the return mathematics is that if you’re looking at large gaps, so just like Nifty50 are large gaps. So this may approximate, yearly return

is 12.5% If you look at the small cap mid gaps, it has been fairly bullish. So for last four years, we have made how much? Approximately 250%. Okay, so. Now what has happened pre-2020 is if you look at the small cap index pace from 2017 all the way till 2020, they had actually come down. So up your

sorry return mathematics if you put and try to compile and understand what you will figure out. In this zone, the small cap mid-caps had fallen. In this zone from 2020 to 2024, very good run up. So this return A, return B, if you do the mathematics, It comes out to be fairly average returns. I

would say that it would be around 24, 25% CAGR. Here we are at best fairly valued. And overall, the market risk right now looks little bit high, especially from India’s investing viewpoint. Now, what do I mean by India investing viewpoint? This is a CashNews.co that I had done earlier. Please

go and check it out. On this CashNews.co, I had explained how do these stock prices move in India. Basically, in the last four years, what has happened is that FIIs have sold the Indian market, and DIIs, which are domestic institutional investors, they have bought the Indian market. They typically

buy a lot of mid-cap and small-cap companies. Because they have pension money to handle and a bunch of other different things, they look for slightly lower risk Investments because for them, going to India itself is a slightly higher risk or emerging market proposition. So they

typically hedge their Portfolios and all that. So they primarily deal with large-cap stocks, Futures and options. So that they can hedge their Portfolio. Because for them, India is just a small market in their entire Portfolio

game. So they look for slightly lower risk, but still high growth options. Diis look for extremely high risk or high reward options, so to say. And in the last four years, the SIP market has gone up like crazy. So a lot of money has flown into SIPs, and a big chunk of that money has moved into

mid-cap and small-cap. So right now, I’m not saying that from here. Let me pull up that chart again because this is a very important points. For example, if we go here, this is the small cap chart. I’m not saying that this entire gain will be wiped out. Maybe it will now consolidate, it

will go up, down, and all that stuff. At least for a few months or a few years, maybe there can be a consolidation in this space. So this looks a little bit risky. There is no massive reward that I’m expecting by holding a lot of positions in small cap indices, per se. So therefore, I’m

cutting it. I’m cutting my small cap position. So this is the first major change that I’m making onto my Portfolio. Now, what is it next that I’m doing? So by picking up this money, I’m looking for some mid-cap to large-cap opportunities. A very good case

study would be something like CAMPs. So I’m going to tell you about CAMPs. If you do fundamental analysis of CAMPs, what you will find is this.. Cdsl ,Cams, two of them. And you can see that it went all the way from it. My community has benefited from it. My students have benefited from it

because this is one of the stocks on which I had given. Made lot of 80-90% returns and you can see that it went all the way from 2000 to roughly 4000. So now it is correcting a little bit. So let me just show that to you on charts. What do I mean? For example, here you will see. So from its peak,

it has corrected by 15%. Now, this is a dip that is there. So a natural question to ask is that, Hey, is this a dip or can it correct further? So for this, this is This is a channel. Maybe it will correct till here, and then maybe it will bounce back or it might get broken down. If we do the

industry-level analysis, then we have to understand in which category, CAMS, CDSL type of companies operate. They operate in what? They operate in Stock Market. If the Stock Market is typically going up or if the Stock Market is even going

sideways, I don’t think companies like CAMHS, CDSL, get hurt. They get really hurt when the Stock Market is going down. Now, what happened is that in India, the entire Sebi issue is blowing up. Now, this has become a political war. If the Stock Market has

gone down, if the 30% correction has gone down, then Congress will say, Look, we’re doing this shit, all that stuff. And what the government will say, You know what? Stock Market is not falling. We have managed the Stock Market. So since the Stock

Market is not falling, there is no scam. So Stock Market returns have now become an ego issue and a political issue between the two parties. So what I feel or my prognosis as an investor is, market can be taken sideways. There is unlikely to be a very deep correction in

the market. When I say deep correction, it means more than 20% correction in the Stock Market, which can be sustained. Now sustained means that the market is going to be 20%. Now, It is just hanging there only for maybe one, two years. So I don’t think if you are keeping a

three-year viewpoint, there is any reason to panic on stocks like CAMS, CDSL types of stock. So I’m still aggregating them, and I’m trying to buy them at dips. So this is one block that I have already invested. In case you guys are interested in learning more about fundamental analysis,

getting quick time updates from my side, you can do two things. One is that you can join the member community. That is very important. I give very quick updates there. If you’re someone who is new, who is not confident about investing in the Stock Market, I run live courses.

Feedback has been excellent. Here are some LinkedIn posts you yourself can go and check. These are genuine posts. You go and speak with those people. They have attended my course. They have really benefited from it. I teach everything from scratch. In case you’re interested, there is a live

batch coming up. You can check the links in the description and comment box. My batches usually get full within a week of launching. So in case you’re interested, do sign up quickly. The primary advantage of this course is the completion rate of online courses is less than 5%. That is what

the MOOCs, massive online open course data tells us. But for my courses, it is more than 95%. It is not by default, it is by design. That because I have turned this into a live course, you get to engage, interact. Therefore, the completion rate is very high. Therefore, you actually get value out of

the course. Anyways, coming back, I hope that this concept of CAMs is also clear. Then comes another natural question that, okay, what about stocks like Aavas? Because they are also small cap. You had earlier purchased it. Are you exiting your position? What is it that you’re doing?

It’s a very quick commentary there also. See, guys, basically, Aavas is still available at a discount, one could argue. For example, this is your 200-day moving average. It’s not as if you are buying very crazy right now. That’s one. Second is that this is a lower-risk Why?

I’ll help you understand that point also. See, first and foremost, the Revenues, Profits of company is all time high. There is no issue with Revenues, Profit of the company. Second key point is that if you look at the

business of Aavas, what is it into? So you can see it is into housing Finance. Housing text-decoration: none;">Finance is what happens? That people take a Loan for their house. And if the Interest Rates are low, they will pick more Loans. If they take more Loans, then the Revenue of the

company is likely to grow. So in what type of environment or what type of business cycle will Aavas benefit? Well, it will benefit when the Interest Rates go lower. When are Interest Rates likely to go lower? Well, in the next three to four months, US is almost

given, is going to cut its interest rate now. Why? Because the Inflation data in the US has now come at a not historical all time low, but very recent all time low. So from that note, it is almost given. Almost every single economist is now predicting that US is going to do an

interest rate cut. If they do interest rate cut, what will India do? India is also likely to cut its interest rate. And if India cuts interest rate, then companies like Aavas is going to benefit. Which other companies are going to benefit? For example, Bajaj

style="font-weight: bold; color: #1a73e8; text-decoration: none;">Finance, I’m going to tell you technicals. For example, if you check, the stock was in a downtrend here, and this is from 2021. This is when actually the entire Stock Market corrected between 2021 mid to

2023 mid. So that was a correction time. Stock hasn’t moved from this level to this, this. It’s almost how many years gone? Almost three years gone. 0% return on the stock.. Now, you’ll say, you know what? Jio is going to eat business into Bajaj

href="https://cashnews.co/finance" style="font-weight: bold; color: #1a73e8; text-decoration: none;">Finance. Jio is going to eat business into Bajaj Finance. Now, that does not mean that

you stop buying companies that are competing with Jio. Now, Jio will compete with EMC companies also. Jio might compete on Insurance also. Jio might compete with CAMPs also. Who knows? So Jio is going to eat all. Now, that does not mean that this will happen by next year. So this

will take time. What one could potentially do is that have some geo also. I also I have geo on my Portfolio. And I also have Bajaj Finance. Why? Because Bajaj

href="https://cashnews.co/finance" style="font-weight: bold; color: #1a73e8; text-decoration: none;">Finance is at a good level right now. It’s not as if that you’re buying this stock really expensive. And with interest rate cuts, what is going to happen? Well, the consumer lending

space is going to improve. Consumer lending space, for the last few months, maybe like 8, 10 months, RBI has been very active. All that stuff. But I think that regulatory pressure is going to ease. Interest Rates are going to get cut. The moment that happens, this lending space is

going to pick up. Consumer Loans are going to pick up. I had been speaking about two themes in the last five, six months on my YouTube channel. For example, one stock that I discussed was TCS.. It has already gone up. It has already gone up by 17, 18%. Open CashNews.cos, you go and

check my old CashNews.cos. I had spoken about TCS. If you have actually benefited from it, do share your comment because they start trolling unnecessarily. They have all the things to say in the world. So this is already going up. Again, this is a candidate that will benefit by interest rate cut.

This was one. Consumer durables, Voltas and Whirlpool were two of my picks. They have done exceptionally well in the last six odd months. Go and check the data again. Those have done exceptionally well. Why? Because that interest rate cut is already getting factored into the market. Now, what are

some high-risk stocks that you should be avoiding? See, first of the things is that, in these stocks, there’s a pump and dump. Never touch those stocks because time is going to be really tough on these types of stocks going forward. For example, this looks like a pump and dump. I made that

entire CashNews.co. You can again go and check it. And then later, inquiry and it got evolved. So see, this was very renewable. All the way till 2,734. It makes no sense. And now if someone is buying it here, all I can say is that that was just a very bad investment move. See, these type of stocks,

I’m sure that people who listen to me, they will anyways avoid. So this is not a challenge. The challenge is to avoid good companies when they have become or it looks like that they have become overvalued. Now for this, I’ll tell you very quick Zomato story. See, if we look at from IPO

level, I had purchased Zomato at around 60. A lot of people who watch my CashNews.cos might have done the same. I don’t know. So, from 60 to 260 almost four times. Now I’ve got my position, almost 70, 75% of it. Why? Think about it. Who are the peers of Zomato? Swiggy. What is the

Valuation of Swiggy in unlisted space? Well, it’s between 11 to 13 billion dollars is the Valuation that you are getting for Swiggy, which is a competitor company of Zomato. What is the Valuation of Zomato? If you compare the number for this,

the Valuation of Zomato comes out to be roughly $23, $24 billion. Swiggy is available at 60% price of Zomato. Now I understand that Zomato might It has slightly better. It has made some very good business moves, whatnot, but almost double Valuation. Does it make

sense? To me, it doesn’t. I have rotated my money from Zomato to Swiggy. In case you guys want to know how to do that, tomorrow I will write a post on my member community, help you understand the challenges, how to do that in the unlisted space. So these are all the points that I’m

executing. The very quick macro picture is that over the next few months, and maybe over the next few years, there is a very high chance of a time correction in the market. The market. You have to make your returns. What do I mean by making your returns? You have to study the stock, study the

fundamentals, do not buy overvalued things, have patience, have patience on good stuff for it to run. If you’re buying something undervalued, hold it. It’s fine. It’s not end of the world. Hdfc, it’s not going to be a year, it’s not going to be a year, it will stop

giving run up. It is probably one of the deepest undervalued stocks right now. I ask my return. Whenever they run, they are so fast, that you will not be able to catch it. You can only catch a good stock as a fundamental investor when it is down. When a stock has run up, now you are getting the

money to invest. At 260, it will be very difficult for anyone to make good returns from a stock like Zomato if you’re buying it now. You always make money by buying undervalued and then cutting your position or reducing your position or selling your entire stake when things look overvalued

compared to its peers. That’s a simple phenomenon. Again, I teach all these fundamentals on my Stock Market course. In case you guys are interested, you can join. Thank you so much for watching. I hope you enjoyed it. You learned something new. If you did, do press a like

button and I’ll see you soon.