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You can’t go a day without hearing or reading about Nvidia. The company powering the artificial intelligence (AI) revolution now has the third-largest market cap in the world at over $2.8 trillion. Investors are betting big on its continued growth, valuing the stock at a premium price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 63 at the moment.
Optimism is high, but I think it is time to zig while others are zagging. Here are two stocks with lower market caps than Nvidia that I think will surpass it by 2030.
Alphabet: The true AI winner?
Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOG) (NASDAQ: GOOGL) is the fourth largest company in the world by market cap, one slot behind Nvidia. With Google Search, YouTube, and Google Cloud, it has dominated the consumer internet landscape for most of the 21st century. It leads the digital advertising space as billions of users around the world regularly engage with Google and YouTube.
Last quarter, Google Search revenue grew 14% year over year, YouTube advertising revenue rose 13%, and Google Cloud revenue was up 29%. This impressive growth across the board drove the company’s operating income to an all-time high of $98 billion over the last 12 months. This is significantly higher than Nvidia, which generated less than $50 billion in operating earnings.
Investors might have been scared to invest in Alphabet due to the narrative that it was falling behind in AI. In late 2022, OpenAI debuted ChatGPT for the masses and then received a huge investment from Microsoft. For a short while, it looked like Alphabet was losing the race in new conversational and creative AI tools.
Today, it has shown an ability to copy and even surpass all of OpenAI’s innovations, which should give investors comfort. It looks like Google and Alphabet overall are now leading in AI.
There is still plenty of room to grow as internet use increases around the world and cloud computing gains more market share. And there’s the potential of these new AI tools, which it is embedding in its new devices like its Pixel phones. With higher earnings today and a long runway to grow, I think the company has a great chance to have a larger market cap than Nvidia by 2030.
Amazon: More of the same
Amazon (NASDAQ: AMZN) is sixth on the list of largest companies in the world with a market cap of $1.8 trillion. Dominating e-commerce and cloud computing has allowed it to keep growing even at such a large size.
Over the last 12 months, revenue has hit $600 billion, up from around $100 billion 10 years ago. And it shows no signs of slowing down, with revenue increasing 10% year over year last quarter.
Profitability has always been a concern with Amazon, but new CEO Andy Jassy has assuaged these worries. Its operating margin has jumped to an all-time high of 9% over the last 12 months and 10% last quarter. With the growth of higher-margin advertising, subscription, and third-party e-commerce services, it should only see consolidated profit margins rise.
Compared to Nvidia — which already has sky-high margins — Amazon can increase earnings at an impressive clip by expanding its underlying profit margin while also growing sales.
It already generates more in operating income than Nvidia. Assuming it can hit $1 trillion in revenue by 2030 and 15% operating margins, Amazon’s operating income will jump to $150 billion by the end of this decade. If this happens, I think it will have a larger market cap than Nvidia in 2030.
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John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Brett Schafer has positions in Alphabet and Amazon. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Nvidia. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long January 2026 $395 calls on Microsoft and short January 2026 $405 calls on Microsoft. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Prediction: These 2 Stocks Will Be Larger Than Nvidia by 2030 was originally published by The Motley Fool
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