Financial Insights That Matter
See our full XRP forecast here.
Bitcoin-Spot ETF Market Inflows Soar
XRP’s pullback coincided with bitcoin (BTC) briefly dropping below $94,000 amid rising US recession fears. The US CB Consumer Confidence Index dropped from 93.9 in March to 86 in April, while JOLTs job openings tumbled from 7.48 million in February to 7.192 million in March.
Weaker labor market conditions and a slump in consumer confidence could curb spending, which contributes over 60% to US GDP. Wall Street Journal Chief Economics Correspondent Nick Timiraos commented on the chances of a US recession, stating:
“2025 recession odds in Polymarket are up today, matching the highs recorded on April 6 and April 9, before Trump pulled back his ‘reciprocal’ tariffs announced on April 2.”
According to Polymarket, the chances of a 2025 US recession have risen to 64%, up from 27% on Trump’s Inauguration Day. The peak was 66% on April 7.
US BTC-Spot ETF Market Faces Outflows
Despite Tuesday’s dip, BTC-spot ETF flows remain a major factor for supply-demand trends. According to Farside Investors, BTC-spot ETF issuers reported total net inflows of $591.2 million on April 28, extending the inflow streak to seven sessions. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) reported net inflows of $970.9 million.
IBIT will need to report another day of inflows to extend the streak for the BTC-spot ETF market on April 29.
Meanwhile,
- Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) reported net outflows of $24.4 million.
- ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net outflows of $13.3 million.
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net outflows of $6.2 million.
Excluding pending flow data from iShares Bitcoin Trust, US issuers saw $43.9 million in net outflows.
BTC Price Outlook: Key Catalysts Ahead
BTC fell 0.70% on April 29, partially reversing Monday’s 1.29% gain to close at $94,342.
BTC’s near-term outlook will depend on several macro and policy-related factors:
- Bearish Scenario: Rising US-China tensions, hawkish Fed rhetoric, soft US economic data, stalled legislation, and ETF outflows.
- Bullish Scenario: Easing trade frictions, dovish Fed tones, upbeat US data, pro-crypto legislation, and strong ETF inflows.
One to watch is the Bitcoin Act, reintroduced by Senator Cynthia Lummis. The bill proposes that the US government acquire one million BTC over five years, with a 20-year lock-up period. If passed, this bill could trigger a significant rally in BTC.
Separately, Arizona passed a Bitcoin Reserve bill allowing up to 10% of public funds to be invested in digital assets like Bitcoin. The legislation now awaits the signature of Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs. If signed, this would signal growing bipartisan support for crypto investment policy.
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