Financial Insights That Matter
XRP-Spot ETF Approval Odds Hold Firm
Despite the SEC’s ongoing silence regarding an appeal withdrawal, investors remain hopeful for a US XRP-spot ETF approval. Polymarket places the approval odds by December 2025 at 79%, up from 68% on April 22.
The SEC would likely need to withdraw its challenge to Judge Analisa Torres’ 2023 Summary Judgment before approving an ETF. In July 2023, Judge Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP did not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test, a crucial ruling for potential spot ETF approvals.
Notably, the SEC recently extended its review of Franklin Templeton’s XRP-spot ETF application by 45 days. The new review date closely follows the deadline for the SEC to file a status report on the paused appeal, suggesting possible convergence between legal and regulatory timelines.
The court deadline relates to the SEC and Ripple’s jointly filed motion to pause the appeal, citing the prospect of a settlement.
XRP Price Outlook: Legal Moves and ETF Progress in Focus
XRP’s near-term outlook hinges on several key catalysts: the SEC’s formal appeal withdrawal, settlement terms, and XRP-spot ETF-related updates.
If the SEC drops its appeal and a favorable settlement follows, XRP could retest its all-time high of $3.5505, with ETF approval potentially pushing prices toward $5. However, continued delays or adverse rulings could see XRP retreat toward the $1.50 support level.
XRP Price Action
Daily Chart
XRP trades below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but holds above the 200-day EMA, indicating a bearish near-term trend with longer-term support.
A breakout above the 50-day EMA could enable the bulls to target the April 28 high of $2.3621. A decisive move above $2.3621 may bring the March 19 high of $2.5925 into play.
On the downside, a drop below $2.05, a crucial support level, could expose the 200-day EMA and test the $1.9299 support level.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 51.82, suggesting room for XRP to climb to $3 before entering overbought territory (RSI > 70).
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