Financial Insights That Matter
See our full XRP forecast here.
Bitcoin Holds Above $100,000 on Trade Deal Optimism
While XRP faced heavy losses, bitcoin (BTC) held firm above $100,000 for the third consecutive session. Reports of a US-China trade deal cushioned the downside amid profit taking across the broader crypto market.
The White House announced a China trade deal on May 11, with further details expected on Monday, May 12. The nature of the agreement may significantly impact global risk sentiment. A zero-tariff deal could boost demand for risk assets, while a high-tariff agreement may spark caution.
Chen Weihua, China Daily EU Bureau Chief, commented:
“China and U.S. will on Monday issue a joint statement reached at the two-day trade talks in Geneva over the weekend. Asked what will be the exact timing for the release of the joint statement on Monday, Li Chenggang, China’s international trade negotiator and vice minister of commerce, replied with a Chinese saying that ‘if the dish is delicious, then the timing is not a matter’.
Li Chenggang reportedly added:
“No matter when this statement is released, it’s going to be big news and good news for the world.”
BTC Price Outlook: Trade, Inflation, and ETF Flows in Focus
BTC dropped 0.78% on May 11, partially reversing Saturday’s 1.72% gain to settle at $103,805. US BTC-spot ETF inflows and MicroStrategy’s recent purchases contributed to BTC’s recent move back above $100,000.
Key drivers include US-China trade deal details, US CPI data, ETF trends, and developments on the Bitcoin Act.
Potential scenarios:
- Bearish Scenario: A high-tariff deal, rising US inflation, political resistance to the Bitcoin Act, and ETF outflows. Bearish sentiment could send BTC toward $90,000.
- Bullish Scenario: A zero-tariff US-China trade agreement, softer US inflation, pro-crypto legislation, and ETF inflows. Bullish sentiment could drive BTC above the record high of $109,312.
Senator Cynthia Lummis recently reintroduced the Bitcoin Act, proposing the US acquire one million BTC over five years with a 20-year hold, a move that could significantly tighten supply.
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