Coffee prices are experiencing notable fluctuations due to ongoing harvest developments and weather-related impacts. On Friday, July arabica coffee prices closed at $3.47, reflecting a modest increase of 1.90 cents or 0.55%, while July ICE robusta coffee prices also rose by 41 cents, or 0.93%, to settle at $4.46 per pound. This price recovery follows a downturn for both coffee varieties earlier in the week, where July arabica reached a two-week low before rebounding through pre-weekend short covering. Meanwhile, robusta coffee also fell to a seven-month low prior to its own price resurgence.
The recent movements in coffee prices stem largely from Brazil’s ongoing coffee harvest, which is proceeding at a pace slightly behind that of the previous year. Cooxupe, Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative and exporter, reported on Tuesday that its members had completed approximately 13.7% of their coffee harvest, a slight increase from 13.6% at the same time last year. In terms of the broader outlook, Safras & Mercado indicated that as of mid-June, the country’s 2025/26 coffee harvest was about 35% complete. This figure represents a decrease compared to 37% of the harvest completed during the same timeframe last year, although it aligns closely with the five-year average.
The progress of the arabica harvest has been hampered by heavy rainfall in several regions, impacting production timelines. For robusta coffee, however, market dynamics appear to provide some support as ICE-monitored inventories have dipped to a one-month low of 5,177 lots as of Friday. This reduction in supply is a counterbalancing factor against the prevailing pressures that coffee prices have faced, particularly over the past five weeks due to mounting concerns over production increases and sufficient global coffee supplies.
Indeed, the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) has projected a slight year-over-year increase of 0.5% in Brazil’s coffee production for the 2025/26 season, estimating output to reach approximately 65 million bags. Concurrently, Vietnam’s coffee production is forecasted to see a more substantial rise of 6.9%, reaching an output of 31 million bags. Both Brazil and Vietnam are critical players in the coffee market, producing arabica and robusta varieties, respectively.
Brazil’s weather patterns have contributed to the bearish sentiment surrounding coffee prices. Recent reports from meteorological services indicate that rainfall in Brazil’s largest arabica coffee-growing state, Minas Gerais, has exceeded historical averages, which eases concerns about drought conditions impacting production. In the week ending June 7, the region received 23.4 mm of rainfall, representing an increase of 207% over the usual levels for this time of year. These favorable weather conditions have led to increased supplies and have generally exerted downward pressure on prices.
Conversely, ICE-monitored arabica coffee stock levels reached a four-and-a-quarter month high of 892,468 bags as of late May, although figures have since moderated to 846,291 bags by Friday. Compounding the market challenges, Brazilian green coffee exports in May reported a significant drop of 36% year-over-year, falling to 2.8 million bags, signaling potential weaknesses in international demand. Such declines in exports resonate with traders and analysts alike, as they are indicative of market trends that could influence pricing strategies.
While robusta prices have descended primarily due to drought conditions affecting Vietnam’s coffee production, further complicating the agricultural landscape, the country’s production estimates for the 2023/24 crop year have dropped significantly by 20%, resulting in only 1.472 million metric tons being harvested—marking the lowest output in four years. The General Statistics Office of Vietnam has reported a substantial 17.1% year-over-year decrease in coffee exports, aligning with the declining production figures. Further illustrating this trend, Vietnam’s National Statistics Office indicated that the country experienced a 1.8% drop in coffee exports in the first five months of 2025 compared to the previous year.
Amid these developments, there are signs of optimism woven into the bearish narrative, particularly for the robusta market. The USDA’s FAS forecasts a robust resurgence for Vietnam’s 2025/26 robusta crop, projecting an increase of 7% year-over-year, potentially reaching a four-year high of 30 million bags. Nevertheless, the mixed projections from the USDA’s biannual report do not provide a clear cut outlook for coffee prices. The USDA indicated a global coffee production increase of 4% year-over-year for the 2024/25 season, focusing on a 1.5% rise in arabica production alongside a more significant 7.5% uptick in robusta production.
In the context of supply forecasts, Volcafe has projected an arabica coffee deficit of 8.5 million bags for the 2025/26 marketing year, an expansion from a projected deficit of 5.5 million bags in 2024/25. This would mark the fifth consecutive year in which deficits in arabica supply have occurred, highlighting ongoing challenges within the coffee market.
As traders continue to closely monitor the evolving dynamics of both arabica and robusta coffee markets, the interplay of weather patterns, production forecasts, and export trends will undoubtedly shape pricing strategies in the near term. The stark contrasts observed in the respective production narratives from Brazil and Vietnam encapsulate the complexities and interdependencies inherent in the global coffee supply chain, pointing to significant economic implications for both producing countries and international markets alike.
In sum, the outlook for coffee prices remains fluid as various factors converge to shape market behavior. Understanding these dynamics will be crucial for stakeholders in the coffee industry, from producers and traders to consumers anticipating price changes in the beverage’s retail environment.