Bank of Canada cuts rates again #CanadaFinance

TORONTO (Reuters) – The Bank of Canada on Wednesday trimmed its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the second month in row, bringing it down to 4.5%, and said more cuts were likely if inflation continued to cool in line with forecasts.

MARKET REACTION: [CAD/]

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COMMENTS

STEPHEN BROWN, DEPUTY CHIEF NORTH AMERICA ECONOMIST, CAPITAL ECONOMICS

“The new Monetary Policy Report shows that the Bank now shares our view that headline inflation will average 2.3% in the third quarter. That provides some support to our forecast that a third consecutive rate cut in September is the most likely outcome at this stage.”

“Otherwise, the MPR also revealed that the Bank is now publishing forecasts for the average of CPI-trim and CPI-median inflation, which it also sees settling at 2.0% next year. Again, that is in line with our own expectations and the key reason why we expect the Bank to cut at every meeting this year.”

MICHAEL GREENBERG, HEAD OF AMERICAS PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT, FRANKLIN TEMPLETON INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS

“With cooling labour data and inflation data moving in the right direction, the Bank of Canada took the cue and continued to lead other developed markets central banks and cut rates for a second time this cycle. Just going through the statement, it highlighted the risks of a slowing economy but it also gave a nod to the need to ensure that inflation remains on the right path, and given the stickiness of some components they’re also focused on that along with a slowing economy.”

“For us, looking at the next few months, we think economic data will continue to slow and that should allow the Bank of Canada to continue to normalize (policy).”

ANDREW KELVIN, HEAD OF CANADIAN AND GLOBAL RATES STRATEGY, TD SECURITIES

“This rate cut was broadly expected. I will say that early impressions are maybe a little bit more dovish in tone than I had anticipated. The Bank of Canada does seem to move into some of the weaker facets of the economy, but they are ultimately linking further easing to the evolution of the inflation outlook. So it remains a data driven approach. We do expect a further 50 basis points of easing this year after today’s cut. So we continue to hold that as our baseline.”

DOUG PORTER, CHIEF ECONOMIST AT BMO CAPITAL MARKETS

“The rate cut itself was not much of a surprise. The market had largely anticipated that.”

“A few things that stood out for me … there’s a lot of talk about the downside risks. Whether it’s the Governing Council is focusing more on the downside risks or they’re actually now trying to talk about perking up growth, they’re talking about the labor market showing signs of slack – to me, this is the signal that more rate (cuts) are coming before too long.”

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