What a sixth Bank of Canada interest rate cut could mean for mortgages as tariffs loom #CanadaFinance

A series of five consecutive Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate cuts through 2024 has offered some relief to mortgage holders and at least a flicker of movement in the housing market, but U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threat might blunt the effects of today’s rate reduction on household budgets.

This morning’s cut — largely expected by observers — is likely to be “greatly overshadowed” by a possible Canada–U.S. trade war, says Justin Herlick, CEO and co-founder of Pine, a digital mortgage and real estate platform.

In December, BoC governor Tiff Macklem characterized the potential tariffs as “a major new uncertainty.” The Bank’s path forward after today’s announcement — and the future of its overnight rate and consequent lending rates for consumers — is far from clear, dependent on factors including the scope of U.S. tariffs (if any), the extent of a Canadian retaliation, and the timeframe.

“Let’s say they impose these large tariffs and the Canadian government responds, as they have communicated, with counter tariffs,” Herlick said in an interview with Yahoo Finance Canada. “That’s going to be largely inflationary, right? And if it’s largely inflationary, then the Bank of Canada won’t be able to cut as per its plan, which will leave mortgage rates higher.”

The price increases associated with a trade war, however, would “almost certainly come alongside a sharp rise in the unemployment rate,” Desjardins Group economist Royce Mendes wrote in a note on Monday, “driving home the need to ease rather than tighten financial conditions. Rates might ultimately come down, but in the context of a wounded economy.”

“There are just many unknowns right now,” said Clay Jarvis, a real estate expert at Nerdwallet Canada. “And I think because they’re unprecedented, something like a trade war with the U.S., a lot of home buyers haven’t lived through something like that. And we haven’t really seen an unleashed Donald Trump and what he could do to the Canadian economy.”

With that said, ongoing evidence of Canadians’ cost-of-living struggles, in the form of data on loan payments and credit risk, suggests consumers are likely to remain hesitant even without a tariff threat, Jarvis tells Yahoo Finance Canada.

“If people are missing their car payments or falling behind on their credit cards, I question whether those people are ready to take on a multi-hundred-thousand-dollar mortgage,” he said. “I don’t think a minimal cut from the Bank of Canada is really going to change the game for anybody. It might still have that little bit of psychological value or ‘Hey, rates are coming down, things feel good.’ But in terms of affordability and making things easier for buyers in that regard, I don’t think a minimal cut to variable rates is going to do much for them.”

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