What does Carney’s Canada election mean for climate finance? #CanadaFinance

Mark Carney’s anti-Trump platform saw him pull off a remarkable turnaround for Canada’s Liberal party in the vote to elect a new prime minister. Carney’s international work around climate change also puts him in a strong position to continue promoting global efforts towards the green transition — in clear contrast to the US president.

Some wonder, however, whether the pressures of national politics might soften his stance and international influence on net zero goals.

How strong will Carney be at home?

With just over 43 per cent of the vote counted after Canada’s snap federal election on Monday, Carney was declared the victor, but seems likely to have fallen short of an outright majority.

The 60-year old former central banker and UN climate envoy’s fighting talk, referencing Canada’s favourite sport, hockey, against Trump’s on-again, off-again trade tariffs and threats to make Canada the US’s “51st state”, appears to have won over Canadian voters.

In mid-March, after comfortably securing more than 85 per cent of the ballot to lead Canada’s governing Liberal party, and succeed Justin Trudeau as prime minister, Carney talked tough on tariffs: “Americans, they should make no mistake, in trade as in hockey, Canada will win,” he said.

He did not let up on the fighting talk after declaring victory in federal elections early Tuesday morning, promising that America would never break Canada.

But not everyone appears happy with a former central banker who lived outside Canada for many years becoming the frontrunner in an election they claim was “rushed through”. Others suggest he has “moderated” his climate credentials in an attempt to win over Canadians and prove himself a steady hand that can manage the economic fallout and threats coming from its closest neighbour.

“What unfolded in Canada in early 2025 bore more resemblance to a pre-planned coronation than a democratic process. While the public was distracted and parliament was suspended, a new face emerged. One not chosen by Canadians, but seemingly handpicked by global elites,” author and private wealth adviser Adrian Spitters opined on LinkedIn, three weeks ago.

Carney called a snap election for April 28 just weeks after being elected Liberal party leader. Parliament had been prorogued by outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau until a new leader was elected and elections held.

Carney’s critics point out he has not lived in Canada for years. Instead, he traversed the globe as UN special envoy on climate action and finance, rallying banks and investors to align their portfolios with achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

Carney has managed crises before

As co-chair of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero — which was set up with much fanfare ahead of the UN-convened COP26 in Glasgow in 2021 — Carney promised “to move climate change from the fringes to the forefront of finance”.

However, the climate organisations he helped found, including Gfanz and net zero alliances in the insurance, banking and asset management sectors, have since floundered and suffered high-profile departures in the face of climate scepticism from the Trump administration and the threat of antitrust lawsuits by Republican-led states in the US.

In addition to his climate work, Carney is perhaps best known for leading the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England through some of the most challenging periods in economic history.

As governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008 to 2013, he quickly responded to the 2008 global financial crisis, lowering interest rates months before other countries took action.

He then became the first non-British person to lead the Bank of England since its founding in 1694.

While at Threadneedle Street, he steered Britain’s economy through one of its most difficult periods, with Brexit uncertainty gripping the country following the vote to leave the EU in 2016, which saw sterling slump to a 31-year low.

Now, as Carney’s political career takes off, financial markets face new headwinds from Trump’s sweeping tariffs and efforts to remake the global economic order.

The euphoria and ambition when Carney first founded Gfanz four years ago has given way to “pragmatism” with the umbrella alliance and its banking group, the Net-Zero Banking Alliance, relaxing their criteria for banks to join, as 1.5C seems increasingly untenable.

Will Carney keep his climate focus?

Testifying before a senate banking committee in Canada just a year ago, Carney said financial institutions in his home country “significantly [lagged] international peers” on climate disclosures. He called on the country “to do better” on transition planning for a greener and lower carbon economy.

However, Carney’s support for climate disclosures and clean energy appears to have taken a back seat during the recent election campaign.

According to Sustainable Views, a sister publication of The Banker, energy security took centre stage instead, with campaigners voicing concerns about how green Carney will be once elected.

Upon winning the Liberal leadership election in March, he scrapped the country’s carbon tax introduced by the Liberal party in 2019, and environmentalists expressed concern he could expand fossil fuel infrastructure while backing clean energy solutions.

Climate Action Network Canada executive director Caroline Brouillette told Sustainable Views that while she is pleased to see the Liberals focus on clean electricity, references to conventional energy “leave a lot of uncertainty”.

With the threat of tariffs and economic hardship for Canadians clamouring for Carney’s attention, perhaps the past is no longer a good indicator of how this next chapter in his newfound political career could play out.

The most difficult part may be yet to come for the career banker who has pulled two economies out of a crisis.