Where do Trudeau and the Liberals go from here? #CanadaFinance

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Now that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is a spent political force, the Liberal party will soon have fateful decisions to make about its future. Almost 70 per cent of Canadians want Trudeau to leave, while the Conservatives are between 22 and 29 points ahead in the polls, which could consign the Liberals to fourth place in the House of Commons. As the hoof beats of the four horses of the apocalypse thunder ever louder, the Liberal caucus is entering open revolt. Everyone seems to agree the PM’s exit is a foregone conclusion, with only timing and method in doubt.

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Everyone, that is, except Trudeau himself, who still gives signs of being in denial. He has the authority to call an election before the House reconvenes on Jan. 27. He may yet believe his campaigning skills and attacks on Pierre Poilievre can convince enough undecided voters to squeeze out another minority government. But he’s almost certainly wrong. Voters have had it with his narcissism, piety, double standards, entitlement, flexible ethics and lack of moral clarity. Staying on would likely produce an election defeat so crushing it would take a generation for the Liberals to recover — or even lead to a merger with the NDP.

To avoid such humiliation, Trudeau could announce his intention to resign and request a prorogation from Governor General Mary Simon to provide his party time to elect a new leader. A request for prorogation has never been refused, although Ms. Simon could limit it to a couple of months, given overall circumstances.

If instead Trudeau were to request a prorogation merely to give himself time to improve his personal political situation, constitutional scholars would disagree on whether Simon has authority under her “reserve powers” to refuse, especially in view of the urgency of electing a new government to deal with the threat of a devastating 25 per cent U.S. tariff. She knows that the Conservatives intend to introduce a non-confidence motion as early as Jan. 30 and that the NDP and Bloc will support it. That is relevant since, as one expert has put it, “a governor general has a central duty to ensure there is a government in office who commands the confidence of Parliament.” There is no appeal from her decision.

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“He haunts us still,” began a famous biography of Pierre Elliott Trudeau. Although Justin Trudeau will soon be yesterday’s news, his legacy will haunt the Liberals’ political future, possibly for decades.

In the near term, there will be distressing memories of: relative and even absolute economic decline, out-of-control spending, intrusive regulations, high taxes, massive indebtedness, democratic scandals, gross incompetence, divisive social policies, inane woke ideology, hostility to vast energy resources, a tattered international reputation, rising crime rates, excessive immigration and compromised national security. Unless the Liberals can credibly alter course on this litany of failures, changing the leader won’t be enough. So far there is no indication they will.

It will be hard for anyone who served with Trudeau to escape his track record. Mark Carney presumably would try, but since September he has chaired the “Leader’s Task Force on Economic Growth” and before that he advised privately for some time — without any discernible change in policies to deal with declining productivity or profligate spending. No doubt he has his own specific ideas, but he has not been critical of Trudeau’s overall fiscal approach and is totally in synch with the climate alarmism that has cost the country hundreds of billions of dollars in both direct expenditures and opportunity costs.

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Another outsider, former B.C. premier Christy Clark, has the advantage of distance and might well appeal to the few “Blue Grits” left in the party. After all, she seriously considered running for the Conservative leadership in 2020 before deciding her French was “too rusty.”

Beyond the next election, the Liberals need to accept that their collapse in popularity is not a personality problem or part of a global phenomenon of voters throwing out elected governments. As in the U.S., pocketbook issues are a major cause of voter frustration, especially high prices, tax hikes, lagging wages and unaffordable housing. There is also a chasm between Liberal elitists and the public on cultural issues. People are fed up with identity politics, denigration of Canada’s proud history, men participating in sports, transitioning teenage girls and other fringe fetishes.

To have any chance of electoral survival over the longer term, the Liberals need to fundamentally change direction from the left to the centre, which is where most Canadians stand and closer to where economic prosperity lies. That means embrace fiscal responsibility, reduce the reach of government, eliminate excessive regulations, bring down personal and corporate taxes and embrace the enormous potential of natural resource development. Also, strengthen the military and return to being a credible middle power internationally.

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Canadians understand that delaying an election for partisan gain would undermine the national interest at a critical moment. The current government is in no position to bargain away the threatened U.S. tariff without giving up the store: the incoming president would exploit its weakness to the max. Continuing to support the Liberal albatross also poses an existential risk for NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.

How the machinations unfold remains to be seen but my bet is that, to their immense relief, Canadians will have a new government by April or May, at the latest.

Joe Oliver was minister of natural resources and of finance in the Harper government.

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