Could Market Forces Propel It To $120,000? – OpEd – Eurasia Review #CriptoNews

Bitcoin has long been a beacon for speculative investors and digital economy enthusiasts. As the original and most valuable cryptocurrency by market capitalization, its trajectory has captured headlines for over a decade. While the digital asset market is known for its volatility, some analysts maintain a consistently bullish outlook. One of the most vocal among them is Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research at Standard Chartered, who recently predicted Bitcoin could notch a new all-time high of $120,000 by Q2 2025.

Kendrick’s bold prediction rests on a combination of macroeconomic forces, institutional momentum, and supply-demand mechanics unique to Bitcoin. This article breaks down the core reasons why this forecast is gaining traction—and why investors are paying attention.

The Global Economic Landscape: Turbulence Breeds Alternatives

Traditional financial markets are under pressure. Central banks around the world are grappling with inflation, supply chain disruptions, rising interest rates, and geopolitical tensions. In the U.S., concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence, increasing national debt, and trade policies have led some investors to seek alternatives.

Bitcoin, often compared to gold, is increasingly seen as a digital hedge against inflation and systemic risks. As trust in fiat currencies weakens, Bitcoin offers a decentralized and limited-supply alternative that appeals to investors concerned about monetary policy and sovereign risk.

Standard Chartered’s analysis suggests this macroeconomic instability will continue driving capital away from traditional safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasury bonds and into alternatives such as Bitcoin.

ETF-Driven Momentum: From Gold to Bitcoin

The recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in several jurisdictions has marked a major milestone in cryptocurrency adoption. These products allow traditional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without managing digital wallets or navigating crypto exchanges.

Kendrick emphasizes that capital previously invested in gold ETFs is now migrating to Bitcoin. This “rotation effect” highlights a fundamental change in perception: Bitcoin is not just a speculative asset but a long-term store of value.

Data from Q1 and Q2 of 2025 suggests that institutional flows into Bitcoin ETFs are not just a temporary trend. Some of the world’s largest asset managers are now increasing their exposure, further legitimizing Bitcoin as part of a diversified portfolio.

Halving Effect and Bitcoin’s Built-In Scarcity

Bitcoin operates on a fixed supply mechanism: only 21 million coins will ever exist. Additionally, every four years, the network undergoes a halving event, which reduces the reward miners receive for validating transactions. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024.

Historically, Bitcoin halvings have preceded major price rallies. After the 2012, 2016, and 2020 halvings, Bitcoin experienced substantial price increases within 12 to 18 months. The logic is simple: as new supply slows, and if demand stays constant or increases, prices tend to rise.

Kendrick notes that this supply squeeze is being amplified by increased institutional accumulation and decreasing exchange reserves. Less Bitcoin available on the open market means higher pressure on price as new demand arises.

Institutional Adoption: From Fringe to Mainstream

One of the most compelling shifts in the crypto market over the last few years has been the entry of institutional capital. What was once considered a niche, high-risk investment is now on the radar of pension funds, hedge funds, family offices, and even sovereign wealth funds.

Standard Chartered forecasts that upcoming SEC 13F filings will reveal substantial Bitcoin holdings by major institutional players. This type of transparency and regulation-driven confidence reassures traditional investors and adds legitimacy to Bitcoin’s long-term narrative.

Further, institutions tend to be long-term holders, reducing volatility and contributing to Bitcoin’s “hardening” as an asset class.

Retail Demand: A Second Wave of FOMO?

While institutional interest is pivotal, retail investors remain a driving force in crypto adoption. The 2017 and 2021 bull runs were largely powered by widespread retail enthusiasm, and data suggests a similar wave is forming again.

With inflation eating into savings and traditional investment avenues offering lower-than-expected returns, individual investors are increasingly exploring digital assets. Social media, financial influencers, and mainstream media coverage are reigniting interest in Bitcoin.

The emergence of user-friendly trading apps and educational content makes it easier than ever for the average investor to enter the space. If history is any indicator, growing retail involvement will add further momentum to Bitcoin’s upward trend.

Geopolitical Shifts and Bitcoin’s Global Appeal

Bitcoin isn’t tied to any country or government, making it particularly attractive in regions with economic or political instability. In 2025, we are witnessing increasing adoption in nations with currency crises or capital controls, such as Argentina, Turkey, and Nigeria.

Additionally, with global tensions rising—from U.S.-China trade disputes to Middle East conflicts—Bitcoin is increasingly seen as a geopolitical hedge. Investors in regions facing sanctions or devaluation are turning to Bitcoin as a lifeline.

As Bitcoin adoption spreads beyond the West and into emerging markets, the global demand floor continues to rise.

Technological Maturity and Infrastructure Growth

Bitcoin has matured significantly from a technological standpoint. The Lightning Network—a layer 2 protocol—has drastically improved transaction speed and cost-efficiency. Wallet technologies are becoming more secure and intuitive, and crypto exchanges are now regulated in many countries.

This growing infrastructure enables a smoother user experience, lower transaction fees, and higher security—reducing barriers to entry for both retail and institutional investors.

With companies such as Fidelity, BlackRock, and PayPal continuing to integrate Bitcoin into their services, confidence in its scalability and longevity is at an all-time high.

Political Winds Blowing Favorably

The political landscape in the United States is beginning to tilt in favor of cryptocurrency. Leading political figures—including some presidential candidates—are expressing support for the industry.

Standard Chartered’s Kendrick points to the upcoming U.S. elections as a potential tailwind for Bitcoin. A pro-crypto administration or Congress could enact favorable regulation, boosting market confidence.

Additionally, bipartisan efforts around stablecoin legislation and digital asset clarity may serve to unlock even more institutional capital.

Supply on Exchanges is Shrinking

On-chain analytics firms report that Bitcoin’s exchange balances are at a multi-year low. Investors are increasingly moving their Bitcoin into cold storage, indicating a long-term holding mindset rather than short-term speculation.

This “HODL” behavior contributes to a liquidity crunch on centralized exchanges. Combined with rising demand, the resulting scarcity is likely to exert significant upward pressure on price.

Kendrick estimates that nearly $16 billion worth of Bitcoin has been withdrawn from exchanges in the first quarter of 2025 alone, suggesting that accumulation is intensifying as the year progresses.

Sentiment and Market Psychology

Finally, it’s important to consider the role of sentiment in Bitcoin’s price movement. Crypto markets are often driven by momentum and crowd psychology. When confidence grows, price movements can become self-reinforcing.

Kendrick’s forecast of $120,000 serves not only as an analysis but also as a psychological milestone. If the market believes this is achievable, positive feedback loops can quickly form.

Social sentiment, trading volume, and Google search trends are already on the rise—reminiscent of earlier bull runs. If media coverage and investor enthusiasm continue to grow, Bitcoin could be propelled beyond even the most optimistic expectations.

Conclusion: The Road to $120,000 and Beyond

The stars appear to be aligning for Bitcoin’s next major rally. From macroeconomic instability and regulatory advancements to institutional adoption and diminishing supply, a confluence of factors is driving optimism for the digital asset.

Geoff Kendrick’s $120,000 price prediction by Q2 2025 is not just a speculative hope—it’s grounded in data, historical trends, and emerging investor behavior. While all investments carry risk, the case for a Bitcoin breakout has never been more compelling.

For those observing from the sidelines, the question may no longer be “if” Bitcoin will reach $120,000—but rather “when.”

• The opinions expressed are the author’s own.