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On September 23, news of the BlackRock amendment filing coincided with a demand upswing for BTC-spot ETFs, particularly IBIT. Before news of the filing with the SEC, IBIT had net inflows of $6.7 million from September 2 to September 20. In the week ending September 27, IBIT recorded net inflows of $499 million.
Bets on a US Soft Landing and 50-Basis Point Fed Rate Cut Fuel BTC-spot ETF Demand
Recent US economic indicators raised expectations of a soft US economic landing. Moreover, Friday’s softer US inflation figures fueled speculation about a possibly 50-basis point November Fed rate cut. Sentiment toward the US economy and the Fed rate path drove buyer demand for riskier assets, supporting the BTC return to $65,000.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 50-basis point November Fed rate cut increased from 50.4% (September 20) to 53.3% (September 27).
US Labor Market, Services Sector, and BTC Supply-Demand Trends in Focus
Looking ahead, the US ISM Services PMI and Jobs Report could further influence the Fed rate path and sentiment toward the US economy.
A resilient services sector and a steady unemployment rate could bolster expectations of a soft US economic landing. Furthermore, Friday’s softer inflation figures could allow the Fed to cut rates by 50 basis points in November to navigate the narrow path to a soft US landing.
Fed Chair Powell will speak on Monday, September 30, possibly giving more insight into the Fed’s interest rates plans.
Support for US BTC-spot ETFs could push BTC toward $70,000. However, investors should consider Mt. Gox repayments to creditors that may counter US BTC-spot ETF inflows. Oversupply risk could push BTC down toward $60,000.
Investors should remain alert, with upcoming US economic data, US BTC-spot ETF flows, and Mt. Gox transfers likely to affect buyer demand for BTC and the broader market. Stay updated with our latest news and analysis to manage your BTC and crypto exposures.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Analysis
BTC hovers comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, affirming bullish price signals.
A return to the September 27 high of $66,517 could signal a move toward $67,500. Furthermore, a breakout from $67,500 may bring the $69,000 resistance level and $70,000 into play.
Investors should consider US economic indicators, Mt. Gox transfers, and US BTC-spot ETF market flows.
Conversely, a drop below $65,000 could signal a fall toward the $64,000 support level. A break below the $64,000 support level may give the bears a run at the $60,365 support level.
With a 66.15 14-day RSI reading, BTC could climb to $67,500 before entering overbought territory.