CashNews.co
Softer-than-expected inflation numbers (Tues/Wed) could fuel investor bets on multiple 2024 Fed rate cuts. A dovish Fed rate path may boost buyer demand for US BTC-spot ETFs and BTC. Conversely, a spike in US jobless claims (Thurs) could rekindle fears of a US economic recession. Recession fears would adversely affect BTC-spot ETF and BTC demand.
Moreover, expectations of a US recession and a more dovish Fed rate path could push the USD/JPY toward 140, possibly triggering another Yen carry trade unwind. BTC could face intense selling pressure in case of a Yen carry trade unwind. On Monday, August 5, BTC slid by 6.91% because of the effects of the Yen carry trade unwind on the global financial markets.
Uncertainty about the US economy and the Fed rate path tested buyer demand for US BTC-spot ETFs. In the week ending August 9, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw total net outflows of $167.0 million.
Possible Price Trends
We enter a pivotal week ahead for the global financial markets. Investors face several BTC price trend scenarios:
- Upbeat US labor market data but softer inflation: BTC may move toward $70,000.
- Softer inflation and spike in US initial jobless claims: BTC could drop below $60,000.
- Yen carry trade unwind: BTC may fall toward $55,000.
Investors should remain alert after the BTC-spot ETF outflows and possible changes to supply-demand trends. Stay updated with our latest news and analysis to manage exposures to BTC and the broader crypto market.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Analysis
BTC sat above the 200-day EMA while hovering below the 50-day EMA, confirming bearish near-term but bullish longer-term price trends.
A BTC breakout from the 50-day EMA would give the bulls a run at the $64,000 resistance level. Furthermore, a break above the $64,000 resistance level could signal a rise to the $69,000 resistance level.
Sentiment toward BTC supply-demand trends and BTC-spot ETF market-related news requires consideration.
On the other hand, a break below the $60,365 support level and the 200-day EMA could bring the 200-day EMA into play. A drop below the 200-day EMA could give the bears a run at the $52,884 support level.
With a 48.23 14-Daily RSI reading, BTC may fall to the $55,000 handle before entering oversold territory.