Financial Insights That Matter
US BTC-spot ETF Market Snaps Five Weeks of Outflow Streak
Despite prevailing concerns, institutional demand returned in the week ending March 21. According to Farside Investors:
- iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw net inflows of $537.5 million.
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) had net inflows of $136.5 million, ending its seven-week outflow streak.
- The US BTC-spot ETF market reported total net inflows of $744.3 million, snapping a five-week outflow streak.
Rising institutional demand supported BTC’s sustained price recovery from the March 11 low of $76,642. BTC is up 1.93% this week.
BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers
BTC’s near-term outlook hinges on several factors, including US tariff policies, the upcoming US Personal Income and Outlays Report, and ETF flows.
- Bullish Scenario: ETF inflows and progress on Senator Cynthia Lummis’ Bitcoin Act could outweigh tariff risks and recession fears, potentially driving BTC beyond its record high of $109,312.
- Bearish Scenario: Opposition to the Bitcoin Act, escalating trade tensions, spot ETF outflows, or a hawkish Fed policy outlook could push BTC toward $70K.
For deeper insights on macro data, regulatory developments, and ETF market flows, follow our analysis and forecasts here to manage crypto risks.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin Analysis
Despite this week’s gains, BTC is in a bearish trend, trading below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The EMAs sent bearish price signals.
A break above the 200-day EMA and the $86,263 resistance level could signal a move toward the 50-day EMA and the $90,742 resistance level. If BTC breaks out from the $90,742 resistance level, $100k would likely be the next key resistance level.
Conversely, if BTC drops below $80k, the March 11 low of $76,642 could be the next key support level.
With a 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 45.70, BTC may drop to the March 11 low of $76,642 before entering oversold territory (RSI below 30).
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