BTC Price Forecast: US Tariffs and Fed Policy End Six-Week ETF Inflow Streak #NewsETFs

Since then, US states Utah and New Hampshire have introduced legislation for a state-level SBR. Other states are also exploring an SBR. Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, highlighted the potential impact of state-level SBRs, stating;

“We analyzed 20 state-level Bitcoin reserve bills. If enacted, they could drive $23 billion in buying, or 247k BTC. This sum is independent of any pension fund allocations, likely to rise if legislators move forward.”

The research omitted the US State of Utah, where the House recently passed an SBR bill, leaving the Senate with the final vote.

State-level legislation for SBRs could boost the chances of a national SBR, potentially driving BTC to unprecedented levels. Amicus Curiae attorney John E. Deaton recently commented on the potential impact of a US SBR:

“If the US Government (USG) passes Senator Lummis’ Bill and begins buying BTC, it will no doubt cause other nations to follow suit, just like with gold. It could literally create Nation State FOMO, and if that occurs, $1M per BTC happens a lot faster than people think.”

BTC Price Outlook: Key Drivers

BTC’s trajectory depends on US tariffs, Fed policy, SBR progress, and ETF flows.

• Bullish Scenario: US BTC-spot ETF inflows and progress toward a US SBR could offset a hawkish Fed and US tariff threats, driving BTC beyond the record high of $109,312.
• Bearish Scenario: A lack of progress toward an SBR, tariff escalation, and a hawkish Fed could pull BTC toward $90k.

Dive deeper into the influence of macroeconomic data, US crypto policies, and BTC-spot ETF market flows on price action.

Follow our analysis and forecasts here to manage crypto-related risks.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin Analysis

Despite this week’s gains, BTC remains below the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMA), sending bearish price signals.

A BTC break above the 50-day EMA would signal a potential breakout, bringing the crucial $100K level into play. If BTC returns to $100k, the bulls may target the all-time high of $109,312 next.

Conversely, if BTC drops below $95K, it could signal a fall toward the $90,742 support level.

With a 47.25 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading, BTC may slide below the $90,742 support level before entering oversold territory (RSI below 30).