Financial Insights That Matter
See our full XRP forecast here.
Bitcoin Tests $97K as Nasdaq Rallies on Earnings
XRP’s gains were modest relative to bitcoin (BTC), which briefly revisited the $97,000 handle for the first time since February 21. Upbeat US corporate earnings fueled risk sentiment, driving the Nasdaq Composite Index up 1.52% and contributing to BTC’s gains.
Microsoft (MSFT) ended Thursday up 7.63%, while Meta Platforms (META) rallied 4.23% after beating earnings forecasts. Meanwhile, tariff developments continued boosting BTC demand, testing the theory of Bitcoin being digital gold. Gold fell 1.52% on May 1, extending its losing streak to three sessions and closing at $3,238 as trade tensions eased.
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, commented on tariff effects on inflation, stating:
“Tariff talk doesn’t increase prices. Imports surged before tariffs went into effect, so there’s inventory at pre-tariff prices. Tariffs for most countries were delayed. Effects yet to be seen, if Trump doesn’t back down… again.”
Tariffs remain a wildcard for inflation and crypto markets. Fed policymakers fear Trump’s tariff policies could spur stagflation by raising import costs and dampening consumer demand. The Fed could leave rates higher for longer to tame inflation at the expense of the economy, impacting risk assets.
ETF Flows Reignite Bitcoin Momentum
Improved trade sentiment also supported renewed demand for US BTC-spot ETFs, influencing BTC price trends. On April 30, BTC-spot ETF issuers reported net outflows of $56.3 million as investors reacted to US GDP data, showing a contraction in Q1 2025. Significantly, Wednesday’s outflows ended an eight-day inflow streak.
However, the US BTC-spot ETF market saw a rebound in inflows on May 1, supporting BTC’s return to $97,000. According to Farside Investors:
- Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) had net inflows of $41.9 million.
- Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) saw net inflows of $38.4 million.
- Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) reported net inflows of $29.5 million.
- Meanwhile, ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB) saw net outflows of $87.2 million.
Excluding pending data from BlackRock’s (BLK) iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), US issuers reported $71.1 million in net inflows.
BTC Price Outlook: Policy and Legislation in Focus
BTC rallied 2.43% on Thursday, May 1, reversing Wednesday’s 0.19% drop to close at $96,453.
Key drivers for BTC’s near-term direction include:
- Bearish Scenario: Rising US-China tensions, hawkish Fed signals, weak US economic data, delays in crypto legislation, and renewed ETF outflows. Bearish sentiment could send BTC below $90,000.
- Bullish Scenario: Improved trade ties, a dovish Fed, upbeat macro data, pro-crypto legislation, and sustained ETF inflows. Bullish sentiment could drive BTC above $100,000.
Key legislation includes the Bitcoin Act. Senator Cynthia Lummis reintroduced the Bitcoin Act, proposing the US acquire one million BTC over five years with a 20-year holding period, potentially a major demand catalyst.
Separately, Arizona passed a bill allowing up to 10% of public funds to be invested in digital assets like Bitcoin. The legislation awaits Governor Katie Hobbs’ signature and may signal growing bipartisan support for crypto asset exposure.
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