Financial Insights That Matter
Republican-Led SEC, Ripple Case, and XRP-Spot ETFs
A Republican Party-controlled SEC could prioritize regulation over enforcement. The shift could include withdrawing its appeal against rulings in the Ripple case, cementing the Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling as a crucial legal precedent for the US digital asset space.
In July 2023, Judge Analisa Torres ruled that programmatic sales of XRP did not satisfy the third prong of the Howey Test.
The SEC must file its appeal-related opening brief by January 15, 2025. A withdrawal could pave the way for a US XRP-spot ETF market, potentially fueling XRP demand.
Several issuers, including Bitwise Invest, Canary Funds, Grayscale, and WisdomTree, have already applied for spot ETFs investing solely into XRP or a crypto basket, including XRP. The Programmatic Sales of XRP ruling means that the SEC has no grounds to decline the pending applications since XRP is not considered a security.
The SEC’s apparent willingness to reject Solana (SOL)-spot ETF filings but remaining silent on XRP-spot ETFs further adds intrigue.
Bloomberg Intelligence Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas commented on the regulatory landscape, saying,
“Nice scoop. Solana ETFs getting told to take a hike by the Genz-led SEC (which James Seyffart predicted in a recent note). Look for them to just refile after the new Atkins regime takes over.”
SEC Chair Gary Gensler and the Ripple Appeal
The SEC’s silence on XRP-spot ETFs raises questions—does it signal a potential approval, or is the agency waiting to act until after filing the opening brief?
Chair Gensler’s recent actions, including strengthening the SEC’s crypto legal team and filing in the Binance case, suggest the SEC may pursue the Ripple appeal.
If the SEC files its brief, the incoming SEC Chair must support withdrawing the appeal. However, he cannot unilaterally withdraw an appeal without going through the commission’s formal voting process. The SEC’s internal rules mandate that appeals and their potential withdrawal must be approved through a commission vote, not by the Chair alone.
The prospects of a vote could make the outcome of Commissioner Crenshaw’s renomination hearing significant.
Pro-crypto lawyer Bill Morgan cautioned against premature optimism, saying,
“I hope no one is getting too excited about the SEC not filing its brief in the appeal on 15 January 2025.”
XRP Price Outlook Hinges on the SEC Appeal and XRP-Spot ETFs
Price trends remain dependent on the SEC’s plans to appeal and progress toward an XRP-spot ETF market. XRP could break above the December 3 high of $2.9070 to target the all-time high of $3.5505 if the SEC withdraws its appeal. Conversely, XRP could fall below $2, if the agency pursues the appeal and rejects the XRP filing.
XRP Price Action
Daily Chart
XRP remains comfortably above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming bullish price trends.
A break above the December 3 high of $2.9070 could signal a return to $3. Furthermore, a breakout from $3 may enable the bulls to target January 2018’s all-time high of $3.5505.
SEC-related activity and Ripple case-related news require consideration.
Conversely, a break below $2.50 may indicate a fall toward the $2.00. A drop below $2.00 could bring the 1.50 level into play. Speculation about the SEC pursuing its appeal against Ripple case rulings could trigger an XRP sell-off.
With a 14-day RSI reading of 76.09, XRP sits deep within overbought territory. Selling pressure could intensify at $2.9070.
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