three devastating waves of Inflation occurred in the US in the 1970s all three of these waves were absolutely catastrophic events for the US Stock Market that dropped in total by 70% on an Inflation adjusted basis over the course of 10
years fast forward to today and we’ve just seen the largest wave in Inflation since the 1970s that took the market down by 25% in 2022 with many economists arguing that this was just the first of many waves of Inflation with the Consumer Price Index set to
follow the same exact path as the 1970s the former Treasury secretary Larry Summers for example is repeatedly warning that people should be worried about a second wave of Inflation citing the high levels of government and deficit spending as a major driving Factor
behind it we’re going to look at whether we’re actually seeing signs of a second wave of Inflation starting and how this is going to impact the Stock Market for Independence Day we are doing a special 30% discount on our membership something we rarely
do so if you’ve been thinking about trying our membership out now is your time to do it when we look at this indicator called super core Inflation it was showing that the US was seeing a significant pickup in Inflationary forces in 2024 starting to look like
a second Inflation wave just like the US witnessed during the 1970s in fact this reading that you see here was from March 2024 and it showed a 5% increase in Inflation over the course of just 3 months which is very high compared to anything we’ve seen over
the last decade this is a measure of sticky Inflation so basically telling us that in March of 2024 Inflation was very stubborn but it has calmed down since the April and May readings show a significant cool down in this Inflation metric so for now
not really telling us that we’re seeing a sustained Su and wave of Inflation but there are still risks that this changes in the next few months it’s not a given that Inflation will calmly move back back down to healthy levels so are we seeing any signs
that it’s about to turn up again to answer that we can’t just look at this super core Inflation metric super core Inflation actually excludes energy food and shelter Inflation which are of course huge driving factors behind
Inflation if food and energy prices are rising that directly impacts the cost of other things all businesses need energy and food to function so if these things rise in price they directly get transferred to the cost of other items this is where gasoline prices look like at us gas
pumps they have been on a steady decline since June of 2022 again not really showing signs of a second Inflation wave now we have seen a little bit of a bump in gasoline prices since January of 2024 but when we look at the price of oil which is ultimately what sets the price at gas
pumps we see that over the last 3 months crud oil prices have come down which could make gasoline prices follow the same goes for food food Inflation is currently sitting at 2% which is a reasonable amount of Inflation compared to the last 20 years keep in mind
that Inflation was at 11% just two short years ago right now we’re not seeing signs that food Inflation is picking back up again but what does this all mean for the Stock Market ultimately stocks care about Inflation because
of the Federal Reserve in early 2021 for example Inflation was already running hot but the Stock Market continued to move higher until the end of the year it’s only when the FED started to talk about rate hikes that the Stock Market actually
dropped by 25% and in June of 2022 Inflation peaked but the Stock Market continued to move down until October it’s only when the Federal Reserve was talking about pausing rate hikes that the Stock Market bottomed and finally began to move
higher so knowing that Inflation is going to stabilize is one thing but ultimately the real impact on the Stock Market is going to come from what the Federal Reserve decides this is the Federal Reserve interest rate and the central bank has kept interest rate just
above 5% since August of 2023 every time they’ve talked about cutting Interest Rates it’s propelled the Stock Market higher this is why we think there’s a risk that the Stock Market goes even higher from here let me explain in the
federal reserve’s last meeting they were more hawkish than expected Jerome Powell explained that the Fed was not ready to cut Interest Rates yet because of stubborn Inflation when we look at the S&P 500’s reaction to the meeting which occurred right
here it was fantastic with the market moving up aggressively following the meeting so it looks like the market was happy about what the FED said but underneath the surface the reality is quite different this Index right here is the RSP and it’s the equal weighted version of the S&P 500 of
the US Stock Market which removes the outsized contributions from stocks like Nvidia Microsoft and Apple and you can see this equal weighted index has actually been moving down over the last few weeks now a lot of people believe this is bad news for the S&P 500 that’s
going to snap back down to reality but we have a different perspective where the RSB could actually catch back up to the S&P 500 and lead the market up for another rally when we look at core Inflation in the United States it’s down to one of the lowest levels over the
last 4 years a lower level than June of 2023 which is the moment when the FED decided to stop raising Interest Rates so this could actually lead the FED cut Interest Rates more aggressively than what investors are pricing right now and however crazy it may sound
push the market higher for another final thrust up we’ve managed to keep our members on the right side of the market throughout 2024 in this correction in March picking back up cheap stocks in April of 2024 riding up some fantastic trades over the last few months if you want to have access to
all of our trading decisions and all of the day-by-day guidance that we provide for both investors and Traders make sure to join our fantastic community at gameof trades. net
CashNews, your go-to portal for financial news and insights.
inflation low still leaves the prices inflated as they are. people having trouble to consume with this prices weigh on the economy
I sure don't. I think we should get rid of all central banks they are thieves.
I really need to pull up a chart of the Transports. I don't think they are doing really well. for example UPS going down not up. And if you belive DOW theory transports going down shows a recession is very near.
I don't know about government spending, but I do know about climate change and empty resources causing price spikes and will continue to do more so the coming decades.
Opportunity of a lifetime yeah? Economic downturns happen roughly every 10 years… buy the dip. (At least the average retail investor should probably do it this way)
Peter Peter Peter – you ARE LONG!
This week Powell testified in the House & Senate. He said things are getting slowly better. The June inflation was below forecast and Employment was higher. If you can't succeed in this economy……………
Problem is, a good majority of US middle class don’t save anymore, they spend every check or live a life that makes them use every dime…
Recessions are an unavoidable part of the economic cycle; all you can do is prepare for them and plan accordingly. I graduated into a slump (2009). My first job after graduating from college was as an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today, I work as a VP for a global corporation, own three rental properties, invest in stocks and businesses, run my own company, and have increased my net worth by $500k in the last four years.
If you look at the Shiller PE and the market capitalization to GDP, they are at very , very high levels. Think being in a plane at 39,000 ft., and the plane has never gone higher than 44,000 ft.. Is it a good bet to try to get the last few thousand ft., or do you buy 2 yr. US Treasuries and be happy with 4.5% (or thereabouts). I am reducing risk to a minimum even though I expect the markets to go up for a "suckers peak".
I've been following your videos for months now and have made outstanding progress with my investments. Truly, the S&P 500 is a self-correcting portfolio. By adhering to these principles, I've been able to grow my portfolio to $380k.
If Kodak stock price is a beautiful mistake, how should we think about Kodak stock's return in value? Personal opinions, not investment advice😂
The yield curve is starting to uninvert. Once it passes the zero line and stays above for a few month or more, this could mean a strong recession may follow suit a year or two afterwards.
I might be being too conservative, but most of my money is just in a high yield savings at this point. Everything is too volatile right now.
We need to be talking about #bitcoin
But but but, muh modern monetary theory?!?! Debt doesnt matter?!?!?!
When you talk about gas, food, housing, etc. that isnt inflation. Thats supply and demand. CPI can be influenced by inflation, but only the federal reserve responding to government spending causes inflation. Printing more money is the sole cause of inflation. inflation can influence CPI, but it isnt inflation in of itself. So everything else is just market supply and demand.
Inflation is higher than ever/prices has soared 20-100% depending on sector since 2020 here in Europe, and they are not coming down.
Omg the financial literacy of the chat….
Lowering inflation not = lower prices.
Prices are programmed to go forever up, inflation is the measure of the rate of the increase.
Example.
2021 rice price = $10
2021 rice price = $11. Inflation was 10%
2022 rice price = $13.2. Inflation was 20%.
2023 rice price = $13.5. Inflation dropped to 2%. But rice price still increased. Up only.
I heard several individuals at Salt Shack saying that the market is ripe, so I'm thinking about investing some money in stocks. Is it a good time to buy stock? I have almost $545K in equity from the sale of my property, but I'm unsure what to do with it. Should I buy shares now or wait for a better opportunity?
Shipping rates already rise again!
A cart that cost $125 4 years ago costs $450 today. I'd say that food inflation indicator is joking 😅
Food inflation at 2%….where? Absolute BS where I live….
"More money is lost waiting for a correction than made during a correction" – I followed some bearish views here thinking I can outsmart the market since late 2022 to beginning of 2023 but then I pulled the trigger on the buy button when it seems like the market is pushing higher. I am very impressed ever since. Goes to show you that no one can predict the stock market and YOU NEED TO DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!! Even professional money managers got fired for making the wrong calls. People can call for a crash everyday (just like the boy who cried wolf) and one day you'll be right. If I hadn't pressed buy, I would've missed on over 40％ of gains just to collect 5% holding cash!
AAPL = $227.82
It's here again! XDDDD lmao
Where are these numbers coming from? Yes WTI was down from April to June after being up big since January and now in the last month it’s up again. So in the last 6 months WTI is up.
Market only goes up
A video showing your workflow making these videos would be awesome 🎉
The frequent uploads with differing sets of data show how adaptable one must become to have a good grasp on the markets.
Inflation won't ever stop from now on ! Hyperinflation is guaranteed. Its here too!
Larry said inflation would only come down with unemployment at 10% he's a bozo
The Fed will pump the market until after the election.
Inflation will likely come in at 0% again this month lol
Food inflation has not gone down since 2021. My grocery bills are the same since covid!!!
Cola is $2.50 everywhere if not more candy bar is $2 bag of chips $2.50 what are you talking about inflation coming down gas has been elevated over $3 a gallon for over 3 years come on
Assets hold onto value during periods of high inflation, but they become very volatile
You’re comparing this apples to apples in the 70s. The 70s was not triggered by an exogenous event. It was triggered by dumb dumb ass accounting politics so you’re discounting the actual physical event of Covid and how deflationary technology is so you cannot compare the two Beauty of the market is that yes patterns repeat themselves because they are patterns, when society has an event like a pandemic, that’s not a pattern that’s an eve
Oil prices have come down because Pres. Biden is selling of our countries strategic oil reserves. He is doing this to gain votes in the upcoming election… He is an obviously corrupt government offical, based on all the money his family has received from both China and Russia…
you should talk about what stocks to invest a short in
Your explanation is clear and practical. Nevertheless, the market can undergo manipulation in various ways. While I initially grasped trading crypto assets, my technical analysis skills were a limiting factor. This changed when I came across Layan Talia Chokr strategy. Day trading deserves increased attention, given its resilience to the market's unpredictable nature.
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues
People must concentrate on broadening their sources of income independently of government assistance given the ongoing global economic crisis. Investigating choices like equities, gold, silver, and digital currencies is part of this. Even with the economic downturn, this is a good time to consider these investing options.
Given the persisting global economic crisis, it's essential for individuals to focus on diversifying their income streams independent of governmental reliance. This involves exploring options such as stocks, gold, silver, and digital currencies. Despite the adversity in the economy, now is an opportune moment to contemplate these investment avenues
A slowdown??May be¡¡¡
The biggest factor that you are leaving out is the majority of the data that comes out of the Fed's & BLS is not accurate. CPI, PPI, PMI, are ALWAYS manually adjusted lower than the true number actually is. Remember when they changed the definition of a recession? They did – it was always 2 consecutives quarters & they changed it to 3.
Amazon er going to be terrible… probably aapl too. Maybe not the actual er but guidance
GROY TMC and AG 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
Game of Trades….
Did you really call 2% inflation acceptable.
Do you honestly feel people losing their purchasing power by 2% a year is an acceptable thing?
Their devaluation of the currency by inflation of the currency supply is crippling everyday hard working people!