FORGET THE CRASH! This Is the BIG PICTURE Nobody’s Talking About – Raoul Pal #Finance

I know there’s a lot of noise about recession recession recession a lot of that was priced in last uh back in 2022 from the forward-looking indicators what we’ve got is the cyclical elements of the of the economy car sales and stuff that are slow minors and stuff that are driven

by the business cycle the business cycle is still chopping now people say yeah but look it it rolled down yes it did roll down it happens at every low of every cycle you tend to have this correction and that’s where we are now so you can see the last few well the last two decades worth you

get this secondary dip before you get the recovery so that’s where I think we are now a global Stock Market route was triggered by us recession fears on Friday Japan’s nikay experienced a 12% decline on Monday its worst day since the Black Monday crash in 1987 South

Korea’s Cosby index was also down by 9% and the NASDAQ plunged 6% seconds after the opening bell rang in New York the crash spread swiftly through the Markets with top

href="https://cashnews.co/crypto" style="font-weight: bold; color: #1a73e8; text-decoration: none;">Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and ethereum experiencing their worst single day declines since the FTX collapse in 2022 and 2021 respectively the VX a gauge of Stock Market

volatility has soared by almost 90% in days and is closing in on multi-year highs though the market rebounded slightly on Tuesday a sense of uncertainty still hangs around many wonder if Monday’s wild gyration Mark the final part of the global sell-off that started last week or is the

beginning of a widespread crash that could change the world forever for popular macro analyst and former Goldman Sachs executive Raul pal it’s all business as usual pal believes the sell-off could in fact be a huge positive for the bold; color: #1a73e8; text-decoration: none;">Crypto Market as it will force central banks like the US Federal Reserve to start cutting rates and ending other quantitative tightening measures in one of his latest tweets put out in reaction to the crash pal wrote I’ve been writing and

talking for a while about the Chinese needing the dollar and Yen lower so they could ease policy without sacrificing the R&B and yelen has been over in China twice to discuss this us rates need to come lower too to help that is now underway the Japanese reValuation of the Yen

was part of a larger agreed upon picture amongst central banks to be able to inject Liquidity into the system to revive Global growth momentum a weaker dollar is what everyone needs to add liqu idity and loosen Financial conditions and it will mop up this current mess caused by

that regime change King Dollar no longer stands in the way this is the big macro picture pal discusses this big macro picture further in a recent CashNews.co highlighting how this crash aligns with his predictions for the US and global economy and most importantly

href="https://cashnews.co/crypto" style="font-weight: bold; color: #1a73e8; text-decoration: none;">Cryptocurrency prices as we bring you clips from Pal’s CashNews.co please take a little time to like this CashNews.co subscribe to the channel and turn on post post notifications for more

CashNews.cos like this everything you do helps with the YouTube algorithm and immensely contributes to the Channel’s growth thanks and enjoy the CashNews.co you see what’s been happening is we have needed stimulus into the global economy because the economy has been slow the ism survey

has been bumping along the bottom China slow Europe slow and you see one of the component parts that allows for this all to move hadn’t really been playing ball firstly it was us rates but the FED gave us that signal so that started moving but the big one is King dollar the dollar has been

strong and a strong dollar is a tighter Financial conditions which doesn’t help Markets and doesn’t help economies you see at this point in the cycle when there’s no

Inflation or Inflation is falling fast generally you need a weaker dollar that brings Global growth so if you remember Janet Yellen went to China twice um earlier in the year those conversations I believe were about how we can allow China to stimulate without

sacrificing the Yuan you see if China had stimulated with the dollar strong the Yuan would have collapsed and they can’t deal with that they really want to keep their currency stable so they would have said to the to the us we get it we need to stimulate we’ve got a

Debt deflation going on but we can’t stimulate you need to help us and Yellen would have said of course what can I do and the answer is well obviously you need to cut rates and that’s like yes we understand that that’s on the cards but then it’s like you

must weaken the dollar so cuted the bank of Japan the bank of Japan is the big player in all of this and the bank of Japan had been suffering from a weaker and weaker Yen and the stronger and stronger dollar and had started to make noises that it wants to do something about it so that the CH the

Japanese banking Market is the euro dollar market it’s the Global Lending of dollars really comes out of Japan and Japan didn’t really have enough dollars so what they had to do um sorry the world doesn’t have enough dollars so Yellen will have spoken to the Japanese as will of

Powell and the idea is this is listen you intervene in the currency that’s injecting of Liquidity help us start lowering the dollar you can be the Big Driver here because this is how you operate your currency system we will reciprocate by cutting rates and the Chinese will be

able to stimulate their economy without losing control of their currency that’s something I wrote about for a while and I’ve talked about that this was the big plan so we started to see Yen intervention now the thing about the Yen as as the Japanese also raise rates the thing about the

yen is that a lot of people borrow in the currency because it’s cheap and then they invest in other Assets it’s called the funding trade and that’s all well and good and it can deal with normal volatility but once the Japanese started to intervene in the currency

it starts knocking people out of their positions those positions become less Profitable so what happens is they are forced to reduce risk in Banks it’s called VAR and Hedge Funds which is value at risk so if the currency moves a lot they’re funding

currency or in fact any major currencies what they have a tendency to do is start having to liquidate other positions that started knocking into the NASDAQ riskier Assets as people start reducing the higher volatility positions and it knocks all the way through the chain of all

Assets that’s why you get this correlation of one event when everything moves together when they weren’t correlated before it’s because everybody’s forced to puke risk at the same time so the risk puking had started and then really started to gather steam

now for all of us this is like what the you doing you’re nuking my bags I get it but again there’s a bigger game to be played the bigger game is they want Liquidity into the system and to do it you’re going to have to have a regime change and that creates a macro

spasm now these macro spasms are not uncommon you tend to get one every business cycle particularly around re regime changes so you know we saw one in 2018 that was at the end of the hiking regime um we saw then this spasm as the market essentially forced the FED to Pivot the pal pivot moment

according to Pal these macros spasms occur quite frequently during periods such as the they are often short-lived only lasting for a few weeks but they pack a lot of Sting and always end with central banks providing more Liquidity to bail out the

href="https://cashnews.co/markets" style="font-weight: bold; color: #1a73e8; text-decoration: none;">Markets for pal this could not have come at a better time for central banks as it easily solves the issue of refinancing the world’s massive Debts at high rates central

banks including the Federal Reserve have now been given an excuse to cut rates as aggressively as possible without causing Widespread Panic pal gives a simple summary of the situation in another post on X that reads well that’s going to solve the issue of the global central banks having to

reFinance their Debts at high rates my guess is that rates overtime come down to 2.5% next up however they will need large amounts of

Liquidity to monetize the previous cycle interest payments to roll it over that will come in due course more cowbell we might even have War to add to the list of reasons to inject Liquidity but that comes with yet more uncertainty fud and volatility instead of

panicking about price movements recessions and the overall global economy pal says one should consider whether anything has changed in the business cycle he points out that we are still at the bottom of the business cycle with a massive easing of financial conditions in Place Accelerated by the

dollar and rate Decline and a host of forward-looking indicators showing signs of a good recovery ahead the real Vision founder and CEO discusses some of those indicators in his CashNews.co here are more clips now the business cycle remember I said well the business cycle is bottoming and not peing

I know there’s a lot of noise about recession recession recession a lot of that was priced in last uh back in 2022 from the forward-looking indicators what we’ve got is the cyclical elements of the of the economy car sales and stuff that are slow Miners and stuff that are driven by the

business cycle the business cycle is still chopping now people say yeah but look it it rolled down yes it did roll down it happens at every low of every cycle you tend to have this correction and that’s where we are now so you can see the last few well the last two decades worth you get this

secondary dip before you get the recovery so that’s where I think we are now it’s kind of noise because most of the Markets I concentrate on

style="font-weight: bold; color: #1a73e8; text-decoration: none;">Crypto and Technology are priced off Liquidity conditions and financial conditions but we are at the relative slow point of the economy where rate cuts are now kind of pre-ordained and the things that back it up

are things like unemployment I’ve been talking for a while that unemployment should rise I don’t think it’s going to go super crazy but now we’re at the point where we’re beyond the unemployment rate of the most um negative fed member so obviously the signal is there

to cut rates and the FED have made that clear maybe they come sooner maybe they don’t maybe they inject Liquidity in different way ways but either way unemployment has been rising and that is a key factor for the fed and Inflation has been falling which is

the key factor of them fled so it’s green lights all round to cut rates and cut rates allows Liquidity to come into to the system so what happened is this mix of the um dxy which is the dollar and the 10-year bond Yields and Fed rate Cuts all came from the

FED starting to suddenly set all the Market starting to realize the FED were going to change course and then the FED changing course by saying they’re probably going to cut at the next meeting and that set this whole thing off now there’s a lot of rate Cuts priced in they weren’t

priced in before but I think they’re more correct in how they’re pricing things in will it work exactly how the Markets are suggesting I don’t know but I think rates come

down to 2 and a half% or lower in this cycle if you remember the everything code needs low rates because you have to refy the $ 10 trillion of Debt so you need low rates to do that and Liquidity to pay the interest payments on the prior Cycles Debt

which is why the everything code is so important in this and why we keep repeating the same old cycle it’s because it’s about paying the refinancing costs of the Debt and we’re deep into the refi cycle so I’ve been explaining for a while the fed and all the

central banks need low rates the Treasury needs Liquidity within which to roll that and also to monetize the previous interest payments that monetization of interest payments is what drives the Liquidity cycle and the debasement cycle which drives

up Assets also as the business cycle bottoms people have more money businesses have more money get reinvested people invest more and that builds on a cycle things like emerging none;">Markets do well when the when the dollar weakens so therefore Profits get reinvested in the system and The Virtuous cycle of macro summer andc full play out and that should play out all the way into the end of 2025 bold; color: #1a73e8; text-decoration: none;">Crypto asset prices have experienced a sharp drop in the past week Bitcoin is down by over 16% and ethereum by over 27% having taken the worst hit among the top 10 text-decoration: none;">Cryptocurrencies regardless pal is still exceedingly bullish on Crypto Assets in 2024 and Beyond in his words the banana Zone slipped on a banana

skin and took some nasty bruising but it’s all far from over the including paragraph of one of his recent posts on X reads eventual fed Cuts will Usher in a weaker dollar period which helps build macro summer and fall right now we are in the maximum fear Zone hold on tight and have a plan

that suits your Risk Tolerance and time Horizon zoom out and relax this too shall pass remember no leverage no fomo top 3 to five Assets as your main bag self- custody or multisig with good wallet hygiene only trade a small Dean bag of less than 10% hodal over a

longer time Horizon ignore the noise and buy the dip if you can do you think the banana zone is still in play or are we upon a global recession that will cause even sharper price declines please share your thoughts in the comment section below if you like this CashNews.co and want more like this

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