Poland’s recent shift towards the political right has raised alarms within the European Union regarding its trade aspirations and the future of crucial financial support designated for Warsaw. The election of nationalist Karol Nawrocki to the presidency has shocked both EU officials and analysts, casting a long shadow over the pro-EU framework established by Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government, which came to power after years of Eurosceptic leadership. Concerns are mounting that Nawrocki’s administration may hinder necessary reforms that unlock billions of euros in EU funding and potentially obstruct significant trade agreements with South American countries.
Nawrocki, who previously lacked any political experience and was known for his controversial past as a football hooligan, campaigned on a platform that emphasized prioritizing Polish citizens’ needs over broader EU concerns. His slogan, “Poland First,” resonated with many voters, particularly as it critiqued EU stances on climate change and social policies. Backed by former U.S. President Donald Trump, Nawrocki stated during his campaign, “Let’s help others, but let’s take care of our own citizens first.”
This political transition is troubling for the EU, which had viewed Tusk’s election in October 2023 as a significant return to a pro-European stance after a lengthy period under the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party that had been widely criticized for jeopardizing judicial independence and rule of law. These concerns had previously resulted in the cessation of billions in EU funds to Warsaw. The European Commission had released approximately €137 billion earmarked for Poland in early 2024, contingent on Tusk’s government undertaking reforms to strengthen judicial independence. However, as Nawrocki prepares to take office in August, there is growing skepticism regarding the future of these initiatives.
Experts, like Orsolya Raczova from the Eurasia Group, have stated that Tusk’s reform agenda now faces paralysis, given Nawrocki’s intentions to obstruct initiatives aligned with EU mandates. The implications are significant, as Warsaw’s credibility in upholding rule-of-law commitments essential for accessing EU funds is now in grave doubt.
The relationship between Nawrocki and Tusk will not merely be defined by their respective positions but by their ability to navigate the complicated political landscape. While the presidency in Poland possesses limited executive power, the president holds the authority to veto parliamentary legislation and appoint key officials, including the governor of the central bank. Tusk, facing the reality of a partitioned parliament, will likely struggle to achieve the reforms necessary to maintain the flow of EU financial resources and restore Poland’s standing within the bloc.
Jakub Jaraczewski from Democracy Reporting International illustrated the precarious situation by noting that Poland’s trajectory would face challenges unless there was a favorable alignment between the president and the parliament. At present, such a coalition appears unfeasible without the cooperation of Nawrocki’s PiS party, further complicating the landscape for Tusk’s administration.
Daniel Freund, a Green member of the European Parliament, criticized the European Commission for prematurely unfreezing funds to Poland without ensuring prior implementation of necessary legal reforms. He suggested that the Commission must now exert pressure on the Polish government to adhere to these commitments. Furthermore, should Nawrocki actively block these reforms, he urged that the Commission should not hesitate to reconsider the availability of EU funds.
A spokesperson for the European Commission emphasized the importance of ongoing dialogue and cooperation with Nawrocki, but acknowledged the uncertainty surrounding the implementation of reforms that had been contingent on Tusk’s government. Given the current political dynamics in Poland, there is considerable apprehension regarding the future of these essential reforms, which were aimed at reinstating judges subjected to previous punitive measures.
Nawrocki’s election represents a broader trend of increasing Euroscepticism in Central and Eastern Europe, as he joins regional leaders like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán in pushing back against EU demands. His ascension to power comes at a critical juncture, as the Czech Republic approaches elections, where populist sentiments, exemplified by rising support for Andrej Babiš, could further unify anti-EU voices within the region.
In addition to his opposition to EU reforms, Nawrocki’s stance on foreign policy issues—particularly concerning financial and military support for Ukraine—has ignited further debate. Although he has criticized EU involvement and expressed reservations about its support for Kyiv, analysts maintain that Poland’s position on the geopolitical stage remains largely aligned with pro-Ukraine support, reflecting widespread domestic opposition to Russia’s aggression. The forthcoming months will be pivotal in determining whether Nawrocki’s rhetoric will translate into actionable policy shifts or if the historical context of Polish foreign policy will prevail.
Despite the immediate ramifications for Tusk’s government, general sentiment across the EU’s Eurosceptic factions is celebratory. Leaders like Italy’s far-right deputy prime minister, Matteo Salvini, have welcomed Nawrocki’s election as a victory for national sovereignty against perceived bureaucratic overreach from Brussels. Salvini characterized Nawrocki’s victory as a validation of the Polish populace’s democratic expression, framing the electoral outcome as a rebuke to external pressures that sought to undermine the results.
Nawrocki’s administration will undoubtedly face scrutiny both domestically and from European allies as it seeks to navigate intricacies of governance in a polarized political landscape. The key questions emerging from this seismic shift in Polish politics revolve around the balance of power between Warsaw and Brussels, the safeguarding of judicial independence, and the broader implications for EU unity in the face of rising Euroscepticism. As political leaders and analysts closely monitor these developments, the stakes for the future of Poland’s EU alignment and economic vitality remain critically high. The next steps taken by Nawrocki and Tusk will be pivotal in shaping not only Poland’s economic landscape but also the contours of the EU’s collective response to growing Euroscepticism across Member States.