as I record this the US presidential election ended a week ago and can you guess what the number one question I’ve been asked over the last week yep it’s hasso what does a a trump Victory what does a trump presidency mean for my financial plans what does it mean for my
retirement and this is not a political Channel but I think it’s super important we talk about this so let’s jump in and the first thing I want to start with is the question that it’s not being asked and that is we just ended election season and that’s a major factor
you’re going to be surprised at how much the market returns vary based on where we are in the term of the presidential uh election so let let’s start here so the the green is the percent of time that the market is positive by year of the presidential term so so we just ended we’re
just ending the fourth year and what you can see here is 82% of the time the Stock Market is positive and the third year which was last year is the highest percent of the time that the Stock Market is up it’s 91% of the time and then um the next highest is
the second year 65% of time but we’re about to enter the first year of a presidential uh term and there is almost a coin toss it’s 57% of the time the Stock Market is positive and 43% of the time the Stock Market is negative so I want to start there
because I think I think there’s something there right this goes back a period of time and I want to give thanks to fiser Investments for this okay but now let’s look at the the the presidency let’s look at how stocks have have done over the long term and you know
obviously red is Republican blue is Democrat this goes back to 1926 and what you see is the Stock Market has done well right the Stock Market for the most part goes from lower left to upper right right it it it it takes the escalator up over time um and you can see
it’s done well in both Democratic and Republican uh periods that doesn’t surprise me it probably doesn’t surprise you here’s here’s what might surprise you if we go back the time Market here since 1950 the S&P 500 investment returns if you had just invested during
Republican uh presidencies and then you did not invest in in Democratic presidencies your return would be 2.8% a year and there’s going to be something here for both parties regardless of what your political laning is there’s going to be something here for each party to like and for
each party to dislike so 2.8% if you only invested in the stockk Market when Republicans held the presidency you’d get 5.11 per if you only invested in the Stock Market the S&P 500 when there was a democrat in but look at this if you invested in all those periods
regardless of whether a republican was in office or a Democrat you’d get an 8% return now I want to show you how um this can change so that data was from 1950 right so so there’s there’s Li and then there’s darn liars and statistics right there there’s so much we can
do my channel is about giving you as as much information as I can as much useful information both the pros and the cons you can make the right decision so we we saw what that was there the Republican presidency underperformed it was 2.8% that’s from 1950 but look what happens if we change
that time period if we go 1928 to 2016 you can see with a a Republican being president that rate of return is 15.3% with a Democrat it’s half of that 7.6% and then all your is 11.28 so it the the time period is important now all that to say I frankly I don’t think it matters as much as
people think what does matter is time in the market and that’s what this chart shows here so this chart here says if you started with 10,000 ,000 uh started January of 1950 and you only invested from 1950 that $10,000 was kept in the market when a republican was President you would have
$77,000 uh if you only invested since 1950 when a Democratic president was in office you’d have a little over $400,000 now again not a political Channel let’s zoom out and now let’s see what had happened if you had kept your money in in both Republican and Democratic presidencies
and you can see You’d have over $2 million if I if I can read that uh number right so the important thing here is to have a long-term asset allocation and to stay the course okay now I think this is really interesting this is when this shows the Stock Market returns based on
you know which party had the presidency but then also it shows returns based on whether that same party controlled the house and and and the senate senate or whether that was divided so you can see Democratic president with a democratic uh Congress uh which would be the House of Representatives and
the Senate the return was 8.7 uh% a year when it was divided it was almost double that 15.72 and when you had a Democratic president and the Republicans controlled both the Congress and the Senate you had um almost uh 14 a little better than 145% return per year since 1950 now what about with a
Republican president with a Republican president you can see if there was a Republican president and the Democrats controlled both the the house and the sen Senate you were barely above Break Even but when the house was divided you had a Republican president and um the Republicans did not control
the house Andor the Senate um you can see it was a 12% return and then when it was Republican president with a republican um Congress you can see almost a 12% a year return so where we stand now is we have a Republican president it looks like we have a republican Congress both the House of
Representatives and the Senate is controlled the Republicans have a majority but what I want to point out is these are all solid numbers so I think it’s a it’s important I’ve said it before um it’s it’s coming up with a good asset allocation that’s right for you
and the right asset allocation is one that you can withstand uh in good times and bad times and then it’s it’s time in the market not timing the market and an election is a classic example of when people sometimes freak out and don’t need to freak out and that freaking out can
really be expensive can really be difficult uh for you and can lead to some big mistakes so good times Bad Times Republican Democrat come up with that long-term allocation stick with that long-term allocation work with a professional to get that asset allocation right you can decide whether you
want to work with a professional outside of getting that asset allocation but that asset allocation is is going to determine over 80% of your investing success so I want you to to get that right because that’s much more important for your financial health for your the success of your
Investments then who is president of the United States and the other thing that’s critically important is remember we are doing this we’re saving our money we’re investing for a goal and the goal is to make our lives better to give us Financial Independence and to
allow us us to retire when we want to retire and we don’t want to waste what I call the Youth of our senior years and that’s why I made this CashNews.co up here eight things to stop doing in your 50s and 60s in order to enjoy your journey more until you get to retire thanks for watching
this CashNews.co bye-bye
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My rent was up 35% over the past 4 years. I am hopeful with Trump back in it will slow with renewed energy emphasis to hopefully lower gas and other prices!? 🙏
Although you did a good comparison of traditional republicans, Trump is something new, different and unpredictable. Also we have reached a point where the economy is significantly different than ever before. I was hoping you would weigh in on the period of extreme inflation Elon has eluded to, and how to invest in a way to take advantage of it. Or perhaps why you don't think it will happen, or some other thing related to this topic.
Make this quick and to point, very disappointed how this is a 8 plus video
What you haven't factored in is having a criminal president with a criminal cabinet and an anti-constitutional demeanour, which has never happened before as far as I know. You need graphs comparing the current government with Capone, Escobar, Mussolini et al.
How long after Trump takes office will our world be safe again?
Enjoy the Kool aid
We’ve seen this movie before. Republicans destroy everything and then Dems are voted in to fix their mess. Clinton voted in to fix Bush 1 disaster. Obama voted in to fix Bush 2 disaster. Biden voted in to fix Trump 1 disaster. Who will be voted in to fix Trump 2 disaster?
The stock market goes up with the money supply, keep the money printer printing..
It’s means you’re about to be screwed ..
It means the bankruptcy of the US. Not his fault but he is hastening its demise by tax cuts instead of increases. He has a history of being president. EVERY YEAR he was president the deficit and hence the debt and the trade deficit went up. This time will be no different except we reach insolvency.
Yes. Get real. It is not a wash. We are against good or evil. Moral and Ethics is not in this Maga cult.
It's not about money it is about life quality. Who cares about the past. The coming chaos will be horrible.
Sound advice
😊
Did he mention the rollback of Social Security and/or Medicare benefits or the extension of age to get any payout? The stock market is but one way that people will be impacted.
Awesomeness that’s what it means
No more SS or Medicare, that's what it means
Notice that the worst S&P result has historically been when the President's party controls both houses of Congress; the best results have been when either one or both of the houses was held by the other party, not the president's party.
Unless I'm misremembering, the inverse held true for budget deficits: the worst deficits, and therefore the biggest contributions to long-term fiscal insolvency, came when the President's party controlled both houses. A bit of gridlock has been relatively better for deficits. (If the Dems control it all, they'll raise taxes, but raise spending even more; if the GOP controls it all, they'll cut taxes and won't actually cut spending).
I'd guess these are related. The S&P loves it when there's no fiscal discipline because in the short-term that juices spending all across the economy, and the market responds. Theory tells us that rational investors will look at long-term consequences, but in reality, the market responds to short-term news as long as it possibly can.
In the longer term, of course, debt service will suck money out of the broader economy and into interest paid to wealthy people and institutions.
Economic policies take time to affect the people. Saying an economy is better or worse “while “ a party is in office is a false statement.
It means that the Democrats can’t change the law, and pack the courts to allow them to eliminate the tax advantages of ROTH retirement accounts.
I retired in 2008 with a 401k and a retirement pension that I took as a lump sum and turned it over to a financial advisor. I’ve been taking MRDs since I turned 70 and still have pretty much the same amount in my IRA as I left work with at 60. I’ve simply stayed the course thru the 2008-10 crisis and the one down time during Covid. A decent advisor and a safe account management company are what I think has me confident about my income being there until I pass. Just get good advice and stay the course.
Let me break it down for you all in one statement…..Whatever Trump touches turns to S**T. So, plan on that.
I want to work till I am 72 or till I die, whichever comes first. I don't care how many M$ I have in my 401(k).
Its not looking at the presidency, or at republicans vs democrats, its looking at trump and the unqualified and/or fascist leaning psychophants he has filled his cabinet with
Looking at more recent statistics, percents using constant dollars:
DOW 2017-01-20 19,827 (constant dollars 25,743)
DOW 2021-01-20 31,188 (constant dollars 37,493), up 46% in 4 years
DOW 2024-11-07 43,729 (constant dollars 43,729), up 16.3% in 4 years
This video is in no way helpful. What happens to markets and savings when authoritarian dictators rise to power. Any suggestions for a video that addresses the realities coming?
This will not be a normal presidency so you can’t look to the past for inspiration.
I’ll live in America, not a banana Republic. No, the Dems don’t want a Republic.
After the reckless spending that caused inflation by a Democrat President and divided Congress, and associated run up in the market, I feel like the incoming administration has its hands full to keep the market going. And I do recognize that both parties spend, but many industries already showing knee jerk reactions to possible cutbacks in spending or removal of certain types of contracts (look at defense industry stocks taking 10-15% hit this past week)
RIP Social Security, Medicare, and millions of retired people who are already struggling. Their lives will be infinitely worse off in 2025 and beyond.
We are not going to let Trump destroy America with his Project 2025 plans.
MORE TRUMP INFLATION ? BUY GOLD ! ETF GLD PAYS MY RENT !?
so sad, what does it also mean for the environment?
The upcoming end-of-year stock market rally, along with the current one, has me pumped. I’ve been working double shifts and continuously buying more shares and Bitcoin. I’m grateful as my portfolio has grown by $300k so far this year.
You are missing the mark. The past is irrelevant when you have a clown show with a bunch of incompetent sycophants. This unlike anything in the past.
Dude! This isn't a normal presidency or a normal Republican party! That is why so many people are asking that question!
Market has been great this year, go with Joe😆