In an ambitious bid to transform its economy, Hong Kong is set to embark on the development of a new hub aimed at reshaping the region’s landscape and enhancing its status within the increasingly competitive global technology sector. Dubbed the “Northern Metropolis,” this initiative is designed to span approximately 300 square kilometers—more than double the size of San Francisco. However, the project is not without its controversies and challenges, both on the economic front and concerning local communities.
Wong Chin Ming, a local farmer, stands as an emblem of the clash between development and tradition. For the past 19 years, he has nurtured a range of produce—from zucchini to cherry tomatoes—on land once occupied by a factory. Soon, however, his farm will vanish as part of a vast real estate redevelopment. The community surrounding Wong’s farm is characterized by a mosaic of expired industries, abandoned vehicles, and remnants of past crises, such as makeshift cabins erected for COVID-19 quarantine. The village’s dense history, coupled with the looming uncertainty of change, captures the challenge Hong Kong faces as it scrambles to redefine its economic future.
Former Chief Executive Carrie Lam proposed the Northern Metropolis in 2021, amid rising frustrations from Beijing regarding the city’s exceptional land prices. With housing in Hong Kong deemed the least affordable globally, the local government has spent subsequent years planning this extensive project, which is projected to host a population increase of over 1 million residents. This area will be situated along the Shenzhen River, a vital border separating Hong Kong from mainland China and integrating the metropolis more closely with its neighbor.
The Northern Metropolis is envisioned as a multi-faceted development divided into four primary zones—technology, logistics, cross-border trade, and ecotourism. This ambitious infrastructure is set to feature new public transit options, including a cross-border rail line connecting to Shenzhen, China’s third-largest city economically. The government envisions creating an environment conducive to attracting cutting-edge technology companies and research institutions to the area.
In the context of a shifting economic landscape, the urgency to bring the Northern Metropolis to fruition grows. Hong Kong has historically relied on finance and real estate as its economic pillars, both of which are currently facing significant strains exacerbated by deteriorating geopolitical relations between China and Western nations. Kathy Lee, head of research at Colliers International Group, describes this shift as essential for the region’s economic diversification.
The proposition that the Northern Metropolis will not only help Hong Kong align closer with mainland economic objectives but also serve as a platform for high-end technology exports adds yet another layer of significance. As Carlos Lo, a governance and policy expert, emphasizes, Hong Kong must move toward a new structural model for economic revival. The previous paradigm is no longer sustainable, particularly in an environment where tensions between East and West continue to escalate.
Amid all this, concerns linger regarding local property investments in Northern Metropolis. The real estate sector is currently mired in uncertainty, with home prices at their lowest in nine years and office rents down 40% since 2019. Local developers express skepticism about committing heavy financial resources to a vast, potentially risky undertaking when existing market conditions are already weak. Facing a rising budget deficit, the government is considering shifting infrastructure costs onto private developers, a move that could complicate project timelines and inflate risks. Patrick Wong, a senior analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, points out that this new financial dynamic may discourage developers from engaging fully in this critical initiative.
The Hong Kong government is aware of the skepticism swirling among local developers and has indicated its willingness to adapt its approach to mitigate these concerns. Reports suggest that around 24 companies, encompassing both local and mainland developers, have already shown interest in tendering for the project as the bidding process is set to begin in the latter half of the year.
As the Northern Metropolis gears up for execution, environmental concerns have surfaced, particularly regarding the potential ecological impact of such a massive development. Brian Wong, who represents the Liber Research Community think tank, has cautioned against the dangers of demolishing rich natural and human landscapes for a project that may not achieve its lofty aspirations. The government claims it aims to mitigate some of these impacts by preserving active farmland and transforming fallow fields into wetlands, in addition to promoting sustainable urban farming practices.
The initial phases of the Northern Metropolis will sweep through villages located in the Ta Kwu Ling district, where residents face displacement. As the government gears up for this ambitious urban migration, many locals express skepticism about the adequacy of compensation proposed for their dislocation. Emerald Lee, an inhabitant of a village that has existed for decades, articulated her disbelief in the value of the financial compensation, arguing that it pales in comparison to current market rates.
Even though residents may receive compensation of approximately HK$12,816 (approximately $1,633) per square meter—far below the prevailing market value—alternative government housing options remain limited. With more questions than answers regarding their futures, many locals wonder why they must relinquish their homes in favor of an undefined urban development.
The government’s vision for the Northern Metropolis reflects a critical step in Hong Kong’s effort to reassert itself amid evolving global economic trends. However, as land is cleared and communities are displaced, the challenges of integrating growth with environmental sustainability and social equity will not easily be alleviated. While the project holds the potential to reinvigorate Hong Kong’s economic identity and bolster its significance in the Greater Bay Area, it remains to be seen whether it will succeed in delivering on its promises without causing irreparable harm to its existing communities.