Euro rises after Germany’s conservatives win, dollar lacklustre #NewsGerman

By Rae Wee and Greta Rosen Fondahn

SINGAPORE/GDANSK (Reuters) – The euro nudged higher on Monday after Germany’s opposition conservatives won the national election as expected, while the dollar trod water amid worries over the growth outlook for the U.S economy.

Friedrich Merz was set to become Germany’s next chancellor after his party emerged victorious in Sunday’s election, though he faces complex and lengthy coalition negotiations after the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) surged to a historic second place in a fractured vote.

The euro touched a one-month high of $1.0528 in Asian trade, but then pared some of the gains and was last up 0.1% at $1.046975.

“Because the German election didn’t provide too many surprises, it’s not that surprising that euro/dollar is trading back to the levels it was trading in on Friday afternoon,” said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank.

The common currency was up 0.39% against the Japanese yen at 156.57 yen, and up 0.1% against the pound with one euro at 82.90 pence.

Investors are now focused on how quickly Merz’s party can form a coalition government and enact reforms to help revive a stagnant economy.

“The period of coalition talks starts now and we could see some residual euro sensitivity to the topic, especially for everything concerning the debt rule,” said Francesco Pesole, forex strategist at ING.

Markets are watching to see if Germany will loosen its constitutinally enshrined ‘debt brake’ rule that limits the budget deficit to just 0.35% of national output.

The issue has become more pressing amid the threat of U.S. tariffs that could further harm the German economy and given the Trump administration’s demands that NATO’s European members, including Germany, spend much more on defence.

Merz on Sunday vowed to help give Europe “real independence” from the U.S..

“How Merz handles himself, not just as a leader of Germany, but as a leader of Europe’s largest economy and as a leader within Europe, it could be quite instrumental with setting the tone for the euro over the next few months,” said Rabobank’s Jane Foley.

U.S. GROWTH CONCERNS

In the broader market, the dollar touched its lowest in more than two months ahead of a busy week packed with U.S. economic data and speeches from various Federal Reserve officials. [US/WTOW]

Sterling pushed to a two-month high of $1.2690 due to the weaker greenback. It was last broadly unchanged at $1.2631.

The yen similarly peaked at 148.85 per dollar, its strongest level since early December, but the Japanese currency was last weaker at 149.49 per dollar.

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