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New Delhi: After developing countries rejected the first draft on the new collective quantified goal (NCQG), on Tuesday, co-chairs of the programme on NCQG at the COP 29 climate talks in Baku released another iteration on Wednesday morning that runs into 34 pages.
The options span a wide range reflecting priorities and preferences of all negotiating groups among developed and developing countries — from a floor of $100 billion to $ 2 trillion. It also has options for contributors , reflecting the evolved and dynamic nature of emissions and their economic capabilities.
NCQG, a new finance target to replace the Paris Agreement’s $100 billion a year, is one of the desired outcomes of the Baku climate talks, although most experts believe that achieving this will be tough. The drafting process indicates this.
The latest draft suggests that NCQG is meant to accelerate the achievement of Article 2 of the Paris Agreement (to try and keep global warming to 1.5 degrees C over pre-industrial levels and to limit it to under 2 degrees C ) and will “[sup port][address] implementation of current nationally determined contributions, national adaptation plans and adaptation communications, including those submitted as adaptation components of nationally determined contributions, increase and accelerate ambition, and reflect the evolving needs of developing country Parties, and the need for enhanced provision and mobilisation of climate finance from a wide variety of sources and instruments and channels”.
On provision and mobilisation , the draft provides three options with several sub-options. The options include: a direct provision and mobilisation goal; a multi-layered approach, including investment, provision and mobilisation: and a combination of the first two options. The mobilisation goal has 6 sub-options.
These sub-options have a very wide range — from a NCQG of $100 billion to $1 trillion, $1.1 trillion, $1.3 trillion and $2 trillion, all per year, with the timeline being 2025-29 in one case, 2025-30 in another, 2025-35 in a third, 2026-30 in a fourth, and, simply, by 2030 in a sixth. The draft also suggests that developed countries provide at least $441 billion a year as grant, although there are options in terms of whether this will be part of the goal or in addition to it. The draft shows that pretty much every option is on the table. It also shows the very wide, polarised views on NCQG.
Negotiators said the G77 and China i.e 134 countries are working together on the draft. “How the text is narrowed down is a matter of negotiation. But at this moment, the important thing is G77 and China and 134 countries are together and maintaining unified voice so the text ought to tilt towards them. This unity must be maintained till the end,” a negotiator said on condition of anonymity.
“The voluminous NCQG text with an abundance of brackets and options is indicative of various Parties maintaining their existing positions. Much more work needs to be done to achieve agreement on key aspects of the NCQG such as quantum, quality and timelines. Ultimately, the NCQG should be aligned with the needs of developing countries and should amount to at least $ 1 trillion per year, composed primarily of grants and concessional finance. Climate finance must be concessional, catalytic, convenient and credible,” said Arunabha Ghosh, CEO, Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW).
Among important developments, Brazil released its new commitment to reduce emissions by 59% to 67% by 2035, as compared to 2005.
“Brazil’s new climate target shows that it is ready to tackle the climate crisis head-on, as long as the country strives for the highest end of its emission reduction target. Cutting emissions by 67% by 2035 could put Brazil on a pathway to reach net-zero by 2050.
Getting there requires bold domestic policies to halt deforestation and promote restoration, decarbonise its energy sector and foster green industry. Embarking on this journey to a new climate economy will create jobs, boost economic growth and avoid more dangerous climate impacts. The government must also ensure these actions promote social justice and build resilient communities,” said Karen Silverwood-Cope, Climate Director, WRI Brazil.
The COP29 Presidency had encouraged the co-chairs to produce this draft as early as possible to guide conversations around potential landing zones and help to identify concerns, they said on Wednesday. Parties welcomed the decision to transition to a draft text and, for the first time in the three-year technical process, described it as a workable basis for discussion.
Commenting on the publication, the COP29 President Mukhtar Babayev said, “This is a significant step but there are still many options to be resolved. We now want to hear everyone’s views and we will create spaces for them to provide their inputs throughout COP29. But the parties must remember that the clock is ticking and we only have 10 days left.”
“On the other hand, if Brazil only meets the low end of its emissions reduction target, the country will veer well off track from delivering on its climate goals. As host for next year’s climate negotiations, President Lula has a responsibility to lead by example and aim high,” she added.
US’s Climate envoy, John Podesta who spoke on Wednesday said: “NCQG should be multi-layered with an ambitious, realistically achievable support layer involving new contributors… underpinned by a set of qualitative elements that evolve the international financial architecture, enhance access to finance for developing countries, and improve debt sustainability. Second, countries – particularly major economies – need to keep their Dubai commitment and submit 2035 NDCs that are economy-wide, 1.5 aligned, and include all greenhouse gases.”