Retiring with ₹3 crore? Here’s why it may not last 20 years in India #IndiaFinance

For years, the 4% rule has served as a financial north star — a simple formula promising worry-free retirement: if your wealth can generate 4% annually to cover expenses, you’re good to go. But Anmol Gupta, founder of a wealth advisory firm, has a blunt warning for Indians: don’t use the 4% rule blindly.

“It assumes a 30-year retirement window,” Gupta writes in a viral LinkedIn post. “That works if you’re retiring at 55 or 60. But if you’re planning to retire early — say at 40 — you’ll need a much bigger corpus to last.”

The mistake most people make? Calculating based on today’s expenses.

Take this example: you’re 30, spending ₹50,000/month (₹6 lakh/year), and aiming to retire at 55. With inflation at 6%, your expenses at 55 will balloon to around ₹24 lakh/year. Using the 4% rule, that means you’ll need ₹6 crore, not ₹1.5 crore.

The 4% rule was built on U.S. data — stable inflation, predictable returns, and strong social security nets. India, by contrast, deals with higher inflation, lower fixed-income returns, and unpredictable healthcare costs. Most financial planners here recommend a more cautious 3–3.5% withdrawal rate.

And yet, the rule continues to thrive on social media — often without context.

Gupta urges future retirees to stop relying on thumb rules. “In the era of AI, use proper calculators to estimate your corpus,” he writes. “Your future deserves precision — not generalisation.”

The bottom line? The 4% rule isn’t dead — but it’s far from universal. For Indian savers, it’s time to move from rules of thumb to tools of logic. Or risk outliving your money.