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(Bloomberg) — Japan’s parliament is set to elect a prime minister Monday in a mid-afternoon vote that’s likely to keep Shigeru Ishiba in the job despite a national election setback, as the premier prepares for an expected meeting with US President-elect Donald Trump later this month.
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Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party and its coalition partner Komeito lost their majority in the lower house of parliament in the Oct. 27 election, but the parties almost certainly have enough votes to reappoint Ishiba as prime minister in a runoff vote due to divisions in the opposition camp.
Barring a major surprise in the election, Ishiba will depart this week to attend a meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum in Peru and then a Group of 20 leaders’ summit in Brazil early next week. Japanese government officials are trying to arrange a meeting for him with Trump toward the end of the trip, potentially during a stopover in the US before Ishiba returns to Japan.
While he is likely to remain prime minister, Ishiba faces an uncertain future because of the coalition’s weakened position after the national election. The LDP and Komeito need backing from some in the opposition to pass major legislation, including an extra budget to fund an economic stimulus package. Ishiba has said the budget will top ¥13 trillion ($85 billion).
The most likely source of support will come from the Democratic Party for the People, a small party relatively close to the LDP on the political spectrum that has enough seats in parliament to help the coalition pass legislation.
The DPP’s potential pivotal role has turned its leader, Yuichiro Tamaki, into a kingmaker. Tamaki is using that leverage to press for his primary policy goal of raising the ceiling of tax-free incomes from ¥1.03 million to ¥1.78 million. Talks are ongoing between the LDP and DPP over the proposal.
The DPP and other major opposition parties have said they will each vote for their own leaders in Monday’s election. If no candidate secures a majority, as expected, the two candidates with the most votes will compete in a run-off. Tamaki has said he won’t back another opposition leader in the expected run-off, all but guaranteeing that Ishiba will secure the plurality needed to prevail.
Following the vote, Ishiba is expected to name some new cabinet members as he seeks to re-set his administration just six weeks after he made the surprise leap from LDP party sidelines to become national leader.