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China’s markets fell on Monday after a fiscal stimulus package announced by authorities last week to help shore up its economy underwhelmed investors.
Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index declined 2.1 per cent, while mainland China’s CSI 300 edged lower. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark affected by the outlook for China demand, was trading 0.4 per cent lower at $73.50 a barrel.
Chinese equities had climbed over the past week with expectations of more details on Beijing’s stimulus plan following a monetary policy blitz at the end of September. But investors were disappointed by the lack of measures targeting consumption, said analysts.
“Investors are unwinding bullish bets as they feel the major event is over and they are a bit let down,” said Jason Lui, head of Asia-Pacific equities and derivatives strategy at BNP Paribas. Lui noted that mainland markets were benefiting from increased retail participation and the central bank’s new lending facilities.
Traders in options markets sold down their Chinese equity positions in Hong Kong, implying they did not believe the fiscal stimulus would lead to any major market moves. Six-month at-the-money options for the Hang Seng China Enterprises index were down 8.5 per cent.
China’s rubber-stamp parliament, the National People’s Congress, on Friday announced a $1.4tn package to restructure local government debt. The long-awaited fiscal plan included authorising local governments to issue bonds to restructure much of a “hidden” debt pile worth about Rmb14tn ($2tn).
Finance minister Lan Fo’an said the government was “studying” additional measures to recapitalise big banks and strengthen consumption but did not provide more details.
The country’s central bank on Monday fixed trading on the renminbi at its lowest level in a year, at Rmb7.18 a dollar, 0.5 per cent lower than Friday’s fix. The dollar strengthened by 0.1 per cent to $105.1 against of a basket of six currencies.
The weaker exchange rate suggests downward pressure on the renminbi from investment outflows and traders positioning for president-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration and potential trade tensions with China.
“With perceived emphasis on stabilisation rather than stimulus, and no measures to facilitate bank recapitalisation and/or boost consumption, we think this will come as a disappointment for stock investors,” wrote analysts at Nomura.
Investor focus has shifted to the Central Economic Work Conference, an agenda-setting economic meeting held by authorities in early December in Beijing, for more stimulus details.
“Constant delays and underwhelming stimulus might remind some investors of Green Day’s ‘Boulevard of Broken Dreams’ — a song that echoes the feeling of repeated disappointments,” added Nomura.