The Cuban informal currency market has entered a phase of uncertainty, with the dollar, euro, and freely convertible currency (known as MLC) holding steady at notable exchange rates as of June 11, 2025. The dollar remains pegged at 375 Cuban pesos (CUP), while the euro holds at 400 CUP, and MLC stands at 260 CUP. Despite these stable figures, economic analysts suggest that changes may be on the horizon, forecasting potential volatility in the upcoming weeks.
Recent insights from the independent news outlet, elTOQUE, highlight a growing concern that the market may experience increased instability throughout June compared to the previous month. The median sales value shows a slight uptick: the euro could rise to 405 CUP, while the dollar appears to increase to 376 CUP in sales. The relative calm witnessed in May is now giving way to a more dynamic marketplace.
During May, the currency market displayed a degree of tranquility, with the euro solidifying its position as the most profitable currency by amassing a 14.8% increase in purchasing power against the CUP over the course of three months. In contrast, the United States dollar increased by a modest 8.2%, while the MLC depreciated by 7%. Throughout May, the dollar exhibited exceptional stability, only ascending 3 CUP—an increase of 0.82%. This stability has contributed to a consistent MLC valuation of 270 CUP, mirroring its April rate and halting the downward trend that began in March.
Notably, the price of the cryptocurrency Tether (USDT) recently surpassing 400 CUP during the last week of May raised alarms among currency analysts, as it often serves as a barometer for the dollar’s impending fluctuations. The volatility experienced in the crypto sector is being closely monitored as it may offer early indications of shifting economic conditions.
Looking ahead, the Observatory of Coins and Finances of Cuba (OMFi) forecasts a paradigm shift in June, likely characterized by heightened demand that could elevate exchange rates. Their projections indicate a potential increase in the informal dollar rate by approximately 15 CUP under moderate circumstances or up to 38 CUP in a more extreme scenario. Such an adjustment could push both the dollar and euro past 400 CUP, a significant psychological threshold for market participants. The OMFi anticipates that the informal currency landscape is poised to become “more active and uncertain” than in preceding months.
Simultaneously, the broader economic landscape in Cuba is seeing the emergence of unique market dynamics, particularly involving telecommunications. As rates increase for mobile services from the state-run telecommunications company ETECSA, there has been a notable uptick in the trading of phone credit across social media platforms. This activity, driven by the forces of supply and demand, integrates multiple currencies including CUP, USD, EUR, and MLC. The monthly recharge cap of 360 CUP per user has fostered an environment where balance transfers are not restricted, leading some to pay a premium for this service. This has transformed phone credit into a scarce and valued commodity within the informal economy.
The ramifications of this surge in demand for telecommunication credits extend beyond mere convenience; they create a parallel economy. The OMFi has articulated that this transformation places phone credit alongside traditional currencies, functioning as an alternative medium of exchange.
The economic implications of these trends extend to inflationary pressures and the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI). Analysts from the OMFi suggest that rising ETECSA rates will likely influence the CPI and inflate operational costs, particularly for digital businesses that rely heavily on telecommunications services. Although the long-term vision may involve anti-inflationary effects through reduced circulating pesos and enhanced fiscal revenues, the immediate repercussions pose significant challenges to family purchasing power.
Despite these market dynamics, there is an increasing perception that the government’s economic strategies lack structural support. Analysts see a growing tendency towards rent-seeking behaviors instead of genuine productivity enhancements. The government’s emphasis on selective dollarization and heightened public service pricing appears to prioritize revenue extraction over substantive economic reform.
The current exchange rates, detailed below, provide a snapshot of the evolving currency landscape. As of June 11, 2025, the exchange rates are as follows:
1 USD equals 375 CUP; 5 USD equals 1,875 CUP; 10 USD equals 3,750 CUP; 20 USD equals 7,500 CUP; 50 USD equals 18,750 CUP; 100 USD equals 37,500 CUP. The euro’s rates are similarly mapped, with 1 EUR equating to 400 CUP; 5 EUR equals 2,000 CUP; 10 EUR equals 4,000 CUP; 20 EUR equals 8,000 CUP; 50 EUR equals 20,000 CUP; and 100 EUR totals 40,000 CUP.
As Cuba navigates this complex economic terrain marked by shifting currency dynamics and rising service costs, stakeholders—from consumers to market analysts—will need to remain vigilant. Observers from within and outside the island are likely to scrutinize both the immediate impacts and long-term ramifications of these fluctuations on Cuba’s economy and its citizens.