The informal currency exchange market in Cuba has demonstrated remarkable stability over the past few days, with key currency values remaining constant as the country navigates an increasingly complex economic landscape. As of Tuesday morning, the U.S. dollar continues to hold at a rate of 370 Cuban pesos (CUP), while the euro is valued at 390 CUP, marking a continuation of the rates established last week. Additionally, the freely convertible currency (MLC) remains at 260 CUP, as reported by the independent news outlet elTOQUE.
This stability in the informal currency market, while welcome, does not erase the underlying volatility that characterizes Cuba’s financial environment. The Currency and Finance Observatory of Cuba (OMFi) has developed an innovative approach to forecast movements in this market, particularly with respect to the dollar, which remains a crucial currency for various transactions. Leveraging artificial intelligence and advanced econometric models, the OMFi claims an impressive accuracy rate of 94% in its predictions regarding the dollar’s value. According to Pavel Vidal, the leading economist on the project, these projections serve a diverse range of stakeholders, including individuals needing foreign currency for remittances or travel, as well as business owners who import goods and must safeguard their profit margins against market fluctuations.
The methodology employed by OMFi relies heavily on real-time data collected via social networks and digital platforms where currencies such as the dollar and euro are actively traded. This capture of information not only aids in forecasting but also aids in reducing uncertainties regarding exchange rate movements. However, forecasting in the Cuban economy is fraught with challenges, as fluctuations in the informal market are often triggered by speculative behavior and political developments. Historically significant errors in forecasting have been linked to events such as the “herd effect” observed between May and June 2024, during which government announcements induced abrupt shifts in market expectations. For example, critical moments in August and September 2023, following new banking measures, led to notable discrepancies between projected and actual exchange rates.
Despite the difficulty of the task, the accuracy of the model improved in 2025, achieving an average margin of error of just 1.8% in the first four months of the year. The OMFi reported that while the exchange rate remained within the expected minimum and maximum ranges in nearly half of the months, deviations showed an average difference of only 5.3%.
Looking ahead, the observatory has announced an expansion of its offerings to include weekly reports on the evolution of the informal market. This proactive strategy aims to enhance stakeholders’ abilities to respond promptly to sudden changes in the market. However, the enhanced frequency of updates comes with a cost, as subscriptions will soon be required to access this information. The OMFi suggests that this increased publication cadence will enable quicker identification of shifts in upward or downward pressures on the exchange rates, thus better equipping participants in the currency market.
In practical terms, the value of key denominations in both the U.S. dollar and euro remains pertinent for those engaged in or affected by the informal currency market. As of May 27, the following equivalences position these currencies in relation to the Cuban peso: one U.S. dollar is valued at 370 CUP, while one euro is pegged at 390 CUP. Additional conversion details provide a clear view of the financial landscape for those utilizing foreign currency, with significant denominations translating as follows: a five-dollar bill equates to 1,850 CUP, a ten-dollar bill equates to 3,700 CUP, and a fifty-dollar bill totals 18,500 CUP. The euro similarly translates, with a five-euro note equating to 1,950 CUP, and a hundred-euro note valued at 39,000 CUP.
The informal currency market, while remaining stable in recent days, is emblematic of the broader economic challenges and ongoing unpredictability that characterize Cuba’s financial system. The OMFi’s innovations in forecasting and market surveillance represent a significant move toward a more transparent and responsive financial environment, though the ongoing volatility necessitates careful observation and adaptation by all market participants. As Cubans navigate the ramifications of fluctuating currency values in their day-to-day lives—whether for travel, trade, or basic necessities—the developments in this informal market underscore the critical intersection of economics, politics, and social well-being in Cuba. This dynamic interplay illustrates the necessity for timely information and informed strategies as citizens and businesses alike grapple with the inherent uncertainties of their financial futures.