America was supposed to be in recession. When the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates at the fastest pace since the early 1980s, few economists expected the economy to be heading into a presidential election in this state. Indeed, even a few months ago few thought things would be this good. Real (inflation-adjusted) quarterly growth in annualised terms has averaged 2.9% since the start of 2023, above its long-term trend. On October 30th America will publish its GDP figure for this year’s third quarter. According to a usually reliable model from the Atlanta Fed, the economy probably expanded at an annualised pace of 3.3%, nearly twice as high as the median forecast in July, at the start of the quarter.