European markets mixed ahead of US election and UK interest rate decision #UKFinance

Let‘s take a look at what’s happening in equity markets today:

• Shell and BP gushed higher after OPEC+ said it would to delay hikes in output by another month.

• NatWest was boosted by an upgrade to ‘outperform’ from ‘market perform’ at KBW.

• Frasers Group gained as RBC Capital Markets upgraded the shares to ‘outperform’ from ‘sector perform’. It said the current valuation fails to discount the likely resilience of its Sports Retail business, its property value and its strategic stakes, for instance in Hugo Boss.

• Burberry shot higher after online fashion publication Miss Tweed suggested over the weekend that Italy’s Moncler could be considering a bid for the luxury fashion brand.

• Anglo American rose as it announced the A$1.6bn (£0.8bn) sale of a stake in the Jellinbah joint venture in Australia as part of its strategy to exit the steelmaking coal industry.

• Ryanair was in focus as the airline cut its full-year traffic forecast and reported a drop in first-half profits, as it took a hit from lower fares and Boeing delays.

• Reckitt Benckiser was knocked lower by a downgrade to ‘market perform’ at Bernstein, while Smith & Nephew fell after Jefferies slashed its price target on the shares.

• Fresnillo lost its shine after a downgrade to ‘hold’ from ‘buy’ at Canaccord Genuity, which pointed to a strong run over the past three to six months.

Wall Street is set to open higher in a few hours as Americans gear up to elect a new president.

A new poll showed Democratic candidate Kamala Harris leading in Iowa ahead of the vote on Tuesday. Bond yields tumbled as a result, easing pressure on stocks.

Rising bets of a win for Republican candidate Donald Trump in the recent weeks had lifted bond yields, dollar and bitcoin.

Betting site PredictIt showed Ms Harris at 53 cents compared to Mr Trump on 51 cents – what investors are willing to wager for a chance to win $1 – compared to 42 cents to 61 cents just a week ago.

Before the opening bell, the Dow was up 0.1%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 gained 0.2%.

As the 5 November US presidential election approaches, the stock market is abuzz with speculation about how a tight race between vice president Kamala Harris and former president Donald Trump will unfold.

Investors are particularly focused on how differing policy approaches to climate, energy, and taxation could shape market dynamics. Harris would likely continue many of the Biden administration’s policies, influencing sectors differently.

With the race for the White House heating up, these stocks are set to benefit if Harris claims victory.

Read the full article here

The US continues to remain the top destination for venture capital (VC) investments globally.

It also outpaced peer countries by a significant margin for high-value VC investments and accounted for more than half of deal volume as well as value of those investments during Q1-Q3 2024.

The US accounted for 55.4% share of the total number of high-value VC deals announced globally during Q1-Q3 2024, while its share in terms of the corresponding value stood at 56.4%, according to GlobalData.

Aurojyoti Bose, lead analyst at GlobalData, said:

Europe’s manufacturing production fell for the 19th month in a row in October, according to the closely watched purchasing managers’ index (PMI).

The index rose slightly to 46 points, up from 45 in September, according to S&P Global. However, that was still below the 50 mark that denotes growth in the sector.

European factories were held back France and Germany. France’s reading came in at 44.5, while Germany’s was even worse, at 43.

Manufacturing in Europe has struggled for two years as exports have waned, demand has fallen, and supply chain problems have held back companies from taking advantage when demand is there.

Dr Cyrus de la Rubia, chief economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank, said:

Anglo American (AAL.L) has sold a 1.6 billion Australian dollar stake (£813m) in one of its Australian coal mines as part of its turnaround plan.

Shares in the miner rose more than 2% after it said it has agreed to sell its 33.3% shareholding in Jellinbah Group to Zashvin, which already owns a third of the company, alongside Marubeni.

The deal comes after Anglo fended off a £39bn takeover approach from rival BHP in May. It is expected to be completed in the second quarter of next year.

Anglo is in the process of selling off its Australian coal business, and is in talks with half a dozen buyers.

Burberry (BRBY.L) shares rose 7.5% on Monday after a media report said Italian luxury outerwear maker Moncler (MONC.MI) was considering a bid for the British luxury retailer.

Specialist fashion site Miss Tweed reported that LVMH (MC.PA) head Bernard Arnault is “keen” to get a deal done with the British retailer, citing several industry sources.

LVMH had purchased a 10% stake in Double R, the investment vehicle controlled by Moncler CEO Remo Ruffini’s Ruffini Partecipazioni Holding, in September this year.

Double R currently has a 15.8% stake in Moncler, and the deal gave LVMH a seat on the Italian company’s board.

Turkey’s annual inflation rate fell slightly to 48.6% in October, according to figures from the TUIK statistics office, although it was still slightly more than expected.

The consumer prices index came down from 49.4% the month before.

It comes as inflation rose by 2.9% on a monthly basis, which was also slightly higher than expected.

New research from The Global Payroll Association (GPA), has revealed that less than one fifth of UK office workers have asked their employer for a pay rise.

Here are some of the key points:

• Office workers tend to stay with their companies for a long time. 71% have been with their current employer for at least five years, and a further 12% have stayed put for three to four years.

• Some 91% of employees have received a pay increase during their time at their current company, with the majority of people (64%) receiving their raises on an annual basis. However, there remains a sizable chunk of employees (31%) who are having to wait more than two years between increases.

• 67% say they receive a review on an annual or quarterly basis. As such, more than half (56%) of office workers have already received a boost in pay in 2024.

• Just 17% saying they have directly asked for a pay rise.

• One reason for so few actively seeking a boost in pay is a lack of understanding around when and how to best request a rise. In fact, only 24% say they know which time of year is best for asking for a boost in pay.

• For some employees, a pay rise is on the cards without even having to ask for it, as during last week’s autumn budget, one of Rachel Reeves’s biggest announcements was an overhaul of the national living wage (NLW).

• One thing employees need to be aware when asking for a pay rise is income tax thresholds. During the budget, Labour also announced that income tax thresholds are to be frozen through to 2028.

Profits at Ryanair (RYA.IR) slipped in the first half of the year as the airline flew more customers at lower prices.

The budget airline posted a pre-tax profit of €2.1bn (£1.8bn) for the six months to the end of September on Monday, which was 16% less than the same period last year. This was due to its average air fare declining by a tenth.

However the number of passengers travelled climbed 9% year on year to a record 115 million.

It said demand for flights was strong but that it could continue to be impacted by Boeing (BA) aircraft delivery delays, staff shortages and the ongoing risk of conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East.

Ryanair boss Michael O’Leary said:

Retailers are bracing for an “exceptionally tough festive period”, according to a new survey from advisory firm BDO.

It come as a tax raid by the chancellor in the budget last month adds to mounting troubles after poor sales in October.

New figures showed that store sales last month rose just 1.7% year-on-year, reflecting how retailers were already struggling before last week’s budget.

Including online purchases, overall retail sales in October were up 4.1% on last year, with fashion and homeware among the worst performing.

Sophie Michael, BDO head of retail and wholesale, said these figures marked a poor start to the festive season, as sales volumes are still “not back to 2022 levels”.

She said:

The US presidential election and the latest interest rate decisions from the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are likely to dominate market focus in the coming week, but there are also a number of major companies still due to report.

Investors will be looking to the latest report from Warren Buffett’s firm Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), to garner any insights on markets from the “oracle of Omaha”.

Server maker Super Micro Computer (SMCI) will also be in focus, as it releases quarterly results, amid auditory scrutiny around the company.

Investors will be looking to see how pharmaceuticals firm Novo Nordisk (NVO) is performing, as it faces growing competition in the weight-loss drug space.

Housebuilder Vistry (VTY.L) is also due to release a trading update, which comes after it warned on profits last month.

Another major UK company scheduled to report is Marks & Spencer (MA6.SG), with investors looking out for more progress on its “reshaping” strategy.

Click for more on what to look out for

Stocks in Asia were higher overnight with the Hang Seng (^HSI) up 0.3% in Hong Kong and the Shanghai Composite (000001.SS) advancing 1.2% by the end of the session.

It came as China’s leaders began a major meeting expected to bring fresh pledges of help for the world’s second-largest economy.

The Standing Committee of China’s National People’s Congress is meeting this week and analysts were predicting the government may endorse major spending initiatives to boost the economy.

The Nikkei (^N225) in Japan was closed for a holiday.

Elsewhere, oil prices gained more than $1 a barrel after OPEC+ said they would extend production cuts until the end of the year.

No reason was given for the move, which came ahead of the US presidential election on Tuesday. Brent crude (BZ=F), the international standard, picked up $1.40 to $74.50 a barrel.

Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog.

It’s the first one of the week, ahead of the US election, so will be a busy one! As usual, we’ll be bringing you all the latest markets news and all that’s happening across the global economy.

Here’s a quick look at what’s on the agenda for today:

• 7am: Trading updates: Kosmos Energy

• 8:50am: France HCOB manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI)

• 8:55am: Germany HCOB manufacturing PMI

• 9am: Eurozone HCOB manufacturing PMI

• 9:30am UK PMI Manufacturing

• 3pm: US Factory Orders