Economy experts look to soothe fears after gloomy financial news #NewsUnitedStates

RALEIGH, N.C. (WTVD) — After an underwhelming jobs report sent stocks tumbling Friday, the downward momentum continued into a new week with heavy losses across the board.

By closing bell, the Dow had dropped more than 1,000 points, the NASDAQ dipped 576 points, and the S&P finished 3% lower.

“This is a classic sort of risk-off situation where people are dumping their risky assets and buying safe assets, which might be, let’s say, a two-year treasury. And when you dump the risky assets, the prices go down,” said Cam Harvey, a Professor of Finance at Duke Fuqua School of Business.

Thus far, the Federal Reserve has resisted pressure to lower interest rates as part of a broader effort to drive down inflation.

“It has been very costly that the Fed has waited so long and I fear that we will have to pay the price. And let me also make it very clear that any recession is a self-inflicted wound. It was unnecessary,” said Harvey.

While the inflation rate has dropped considerably from its peak, it remains about the Fed’s target of 2%.

“The Fed needs to lead. Their track record suggests that they follow,” said Harvey.

Stocks were not the only asset hit hard Monday, as cryptocurrency was also severely affected.

“When there’s market turmoil people get scared or fearful, (and) they’ll try and raise cash and trade out of all the things in their accounts. Naturally, crypto, as risky as it is, you see people panic and then that’s when the price starts to tank,” explained Eric Meltzer, an associate portfolio manager at a digital asset investment firm.

As of 5 p.m. Monday, Bitcoin was down more than 7% Monday and about 16% during the past five days. Ethereum has dropped 10% on the day and 25% during the past five days.

“Over the weekend, (investors) see market turmoil overseas, and the first thing that they can do is trade out of this stuff that they can actually trade at that time, which is crypto. Usually, the crypto markets over the weekend act as an indicator of forecast for what will happen come Monday in the equities markets in the US,” Meltzer explained.

Meltzer, who has worked in the space since 2017, said he often hears from clients during periods of extreme volatility.

“You usually see in the crypto markets, the rebounds are just as fierce. Usually, when FOMO (Feat of missing out) hits, FOMO hits hard. And so it kind of works both ways,” said Meltzer.

Despite the rocky stretch, he urged patience.

“If you’re a long-term believer in (cryptocurrency), there’s no reason you should be panicking,” said Meltzer.

Cryptocurrencies are largely owned by Millennials and Gen Z investors, who typically have decades until their target retirement dates.

However, for those who are nearing retirement, savings accounts are more pressing matters.

“It changes the behavior of people that were thinking of retiring or people that have recently retired that they might need to go back into the workforce. It changes their spending. Also, this uncertainty means that you’re not going to make the same discretionary spending, and that feeds into slower consumer spending and slower growth,” said Harvey.

“I draw a retirement pension from the military after 30 years of service. I have to continue to work. There’s no kicking back. There’s no easy life, I believe anymore. You’re going to have to chip in tribute to society and work,” said Robert Burton, who lives in the Triangle.

Burton spent a couple of months out of the workforce after his military career before seeking employment again. He credits the quick turnaround behind an easier transition.

“Skills atrophy. You have to continue to rebuild, retool, upskill, reskill and learn new things,” said Burton, who now works for the North Carolina Defense Technology Transition Office.

A study released by T. Rowe Price in March found that about 20% of retirees are working either full or part-time, and another 7% are searching for employment. Of those who have returned, nearly half cited economic reasons for doing so.

“How can we be self-sufficient as possible regardless of what the markets are,” said Burton.

Past economic considerations, Burton cited a sense of purpose as an important motivating factor.

“When you come out of the military, you’re part of a community, you’re part of a team, part of a family, mission-driven organizations, especially in Army Special Operations. Where I was, we consider those tribes very tight-knit and right away you miss that,” said Burton.

Cost of living has remained top of mind for many Americans, particularly retirees, who are closely tracking market conditions and their effects on retirement accounts.

“Almost two million working North Carolinians don’t have access to a way to save for retirement,” said Chris Brandenburg, an Advocacy Manager of State and Federal Issues for AARP North Carolina.

The organization supports North Carolina Work and Save, a program that would allow those who work for employers that don’t offer retirement plans to have funds deposited into a state-managed account. The bipartisan House bill was filed last year but did not move forward, though Brandenburg is optimistic it will progress in 2025.

“We’ve seen 20 states that have already moved forward in passing some version of this across the country,” said Brandenburg.

Past that, Brandenburg described Social Security, a key source of income for retirees, as its “bread and butter issue.”

“We know that that long-term solvency is a real problem for Social Security. We know within a decade that’s expected to be an issue. Unfortunately, Congress isn’t known for being proactive. But that’s still something that we are working hard on day and night to ask them to take some proactive steps,” said Brandenburg.

According to an April 2024 AARP survey of adults who are saving for retirement, 20% of adults ages 50 and older have no retirement savings, and 61% are worried they do not have enough money to support them in retirement.

Even after back-to-back trading rough trading days, the Dow (2.62%), NASDAQ (9.71%), and S&P 500 (9.35%) are all up on the year. Further, Bitcoin (23.45%) and Ethereum (3.47%) have also gained value year-to-date.

“Try to look at the long-term view when it comes to the market. It’s really easy to become hyper-focused and sort of take a screenshot of the here and now. But we know the S&P 500 over the last 50 years has averaged over a 10% rate of return,” said Brandenburg.